Ukraine is making progress in its offensive against the city of Kherson, reports British intelligence. Experts believe we may be facing the turning point of the war.
Updated less than 20 minutes ago
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Ukrainian forces have used long-range artillery to damage at least three bridges over the Dnipro River near Kherson, British intelligence reports on Thursday morning.
– Ukraine has used the American weapon system HIMARS, and managed to damage the bridges to such an extent that the Russians cannot use heavier vehicles over them, says Lieutenant-Colonel Palle Ydstebø of the section for land power at the war school, to VG.
Kherson is a strategic and important city and has been occupied by Russia since March.
–Must use ferry for supplies
Ydstebø says that Ukraine has had a counter-offensive in the area for well over a month, and has recently made progress in that they can attack the Russians’ rear areas. When the Russians cannot use larger vehicles over the bridges, Russian forces have in practice been isolated on the other side of the bridge.
– The Russians have some military ferries, which can transport supplies across, but these have a rather limited capacity compared to when the bridges were operational. It is quite a large river, over which it is difficult to maintain a connection.
Can stand above tipping point
Ydstebø explains that there is not much progress on the ground, but that there is progress in the way the Ukrainians use their weapons.
– They have come so close to Kherson that they can also use ordinary artillery fire. This means that they can effectively force the Russians to give up the entire area, or the Russians will not get supplies, starve, run out of ammunition, and either surrender or pull out.
This could give Ukrainians an advantage in the area around Kherson, Ydstebø believes.
– How this develops depends entirely on how the Russians react. They may choose to withdraw more forces from the Dombas area, to reinforce the forces in Kherson. At the same time, this will make the Russians weaker in the Dombas region.
When Ukraine can use its forces for targeted attacks, and not just for defense, this means that Ukraine can set the stage for the war to a greater extent.
– We may be facing a turning point in the course of the war, says Ydstebø.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense tweeted on Wednesday that Russian forces had to make a choice: “Retreat or be killed by the Ukrainian military. The choice is theirs.”
Strategically important city
Kherson was the first large and important city that fell to the Russians.
The port city in the south is considered strategically important as it lies both along the Black Sea, on the banks of the river Dnipro and relatively close to the annexed Crimean peninsula.
The Antonivskyj Bridge that crosses the Dnipro River was attacked last week, and on Wednesday Ukraine attacked the bridge again.
– It is highly likely that the bridge is unusable, writes British intelligence.
According to British intelligence, Russia’s forces are now stationed on the west side of the Dnipro river and will be very vulnerable.
– The loss will seriously undermine Russia’s attempts to make the occupation look like a success, write the British.
–The Russians have tried to advance from Kherson to the west, but have been repulsed and never got beyond Mykolaiv – a city that has been under heavy Russian fire for months.
But to the east, Russia has managed to take land, and eventually also another important strategic city – Mariupol.
On Tuesday, Ukrainian authorities said that Kherson will be recaptured by Septemberwith the help of Western weapons.
–A possible urban war there will in all probability be very bloody.
It will also be the first time since the full-scale invasion that the Ukrainian forces will attempt to recapture an urban center.
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