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The first quarter of 2022/23 in Brazil’s south-central region ended on Nov. 10, according to consultancy AgRural.CornPlanting progress is 70%, compared to 63% last week and 85% this time last year. The slow pace of planting is due to irregular rainfall in the southeast and in Goiás. Planting has finished in southern Brazil where warmer temperatures are favoring the harvest.
The weather forecast for the major US corn-producing states in the next 6-10 days: 100% of the major US corn-producing states have a high degree of confidence that the temperature will be lower than normal in the next 6-10 days and the 78% of regions have a relatively high degree of confidence that rainfall will be lower than normal.
Summary of agricultural product export data from the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce and Trade: In the second week of November 2022, a total of 8 working days, 2.2886 million tons of corn were loaded, compared with 2.3925 million tons in November of last year . The average daily volume of shipments was 286,100 tons/day, an increase of 127.18% from 125,900 tons/day in November last year.
The weekly crop growth report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) early Tuesday showed that as of the week of Nov. 13, the US corn harvest rate was 93 percent. market forecast was 93%, the previous week was 87% and the same period last year was 93%, 90% and the five-year average is 85%.
Institutional vision
Southwest Futures:
Overall, Northern corn’s overall selling pressure is not strong. The paddy stopped firing. Inventories from northeastern origins began to gradually move to northern ports. The price advantage of imported corn in southern ports has diminished and feed demand may turn to domestic corn. Global corn inventories are close to eight-year lows. The arrival cost of corn in the new harvest season is about 2,700-2,750 yuan/ton, and the cost is somewhat bearable. It is suggested to gradually establish more orders along the cost support. Pay attention to your money management and set a good stop loss.
Strategy:It is suggested to gradually establish more orders along the cost support.
Future Huatais:
Internationally, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) released a report stating that the lack of rainfall continued to affect the progress of corn planting, with progress of 1.1%, progress is relatively slow. Domestically, the quotation volume in northeast China is still insufficient, the old grain of enterprises is declining day by day, and the new grain buying sentiment is high. At the same time, various reserve deposits are also starting to replenish their warehouses. In addition, most of the country is facing the impact of rainy and snowy weather this weekend, resulting in higher logistics costs. Basic sales have been hampered and supply has been constrained, which has supported the spot price of corn. Therefore, corn prices are expected to fluctuate sharply this week.
Strategy:Unilaterally cautiously bullish.
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