Correio Newspaper | Atlas: Boulos owns 28.5%; Nunes, 21.8%; Markal, 16.3% and Tabata, 12%

This is the first AtlasIntel study to be published after filing applications

The AtlasIntel survey for the São Paulo City Hall published this Wednesday (21) shows that the federal deputy head Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) leads the voting intentions for the Government of the capital city of São Paulo. Boulos has 28.5% of references in the survey and is 6.7 percentage points ahead of Mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB), who has 21.8%. They are followed by businessman and influencer Pablo Marçal, from PRTB, with 16.3%

Federal deputy Tabata Amaral (PSB) has 12% and TV presenter José Luiz Datena (PSDB), 9.5%. Given that the poll’s margin of error is two percentage points, Tabata and Datena are technically tied. Next comes the economist Marina Helena (Novo), with 4.3% of references.

Altino (PSTU) has 0.3% and Ricardo Senese (UP), 0.2%. João Pimenta, from PCO, did not score. Bebeto Haddad (DC), whose claim was confirmed on the same day the survey was recorded, was not included as a voting option in the survey. 6.2% had blank or invalid votes. 0.9% of those interviewed could not answer.

This is the first AtlasIntel survey published after the registration of applications and after the start of the campaign and the holding of the first debates between the main candidates for mayor of São Paulo. The study interviewed 1,803 São Paulo residents aged 16 or older between August 15th and 20th. The margin of error is 2 percentage points and the confidence level is 95%. The inquiry is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) with reference SP-02504/2024.

Considering only valid votes, that is, excluding blank and independent votes, Boulos has 30.7%, Nunes, 23.5%, Marçal, 17.6%, Tabata, 13%, Datena, 10%, Marina Helena, 4.7%, Altino, 0.3%, Senese, 0.2% and Pimenta, 0%.

Taking into account the time series, Pablo Marçal was the only one who grew from the last AtlasIntel study, published on August 8. At the time, the former coach registered 11.4% of voting intentions, growing by 4.9 percentage points since then. In the same period, Guilherme Boulos, who had 32.7%, fell 4.2 percentage points, and Ricardo Nunes, with 24.9%, fell 3.1 points.

Tabata Amaral changed positively, that is, it grew, but within the margin of error, going from 11.2% to 12%. The same thing happens with Datena, which changed from 9.4% to 9.5% from the beginning of the month.

The research also conducted six simulations in the second round among candidates for Mayor of São Paulo. If the dispute was between Ricardo Nunes and Guilherme Boulos, the mayor would have an advantage of 4.1 percentage points over the PSOL candidate: in this situation, the emedebista and the federal deputy have 40.9%, 36.8% . 18% of those interviewed voted blank or independent, and 4.4% did not know how to answer.

If there was a second round between Ricardo Nunes and Datena, the current president would defeat the journalist 40.8% of the votes to 28.7%. This is the biggest advantage among the symbols in the second round that the research did. 27.2% voted independent or blank, and 3.3% did not know how to answer.

Between Nunes and Tabata Amaral, there is a technical tie, despite the numerical advantage for the PSB candidate: the federal deputy has 38.8% and the mayor, 38.5%. Between the two, 20.6% voted blank or independent, and 2% did not know how to answer.

In a second round between Guilherme Boulos and Pablo Marçal, the PSOL candidate has 38.4% of the vote and the former coach, with 35.4%. Despite the numerical advantage, there is a technical connection, within the margin of error of the survey. In this situation, 24.2% would vote blank or independent and 2% did not know how to answer.

Boulos is also technically tied in a possible second round against Tabata Amaral: the PSOL candidate has 29.8% and the Pessebist candidate has 29.1%. 38.3% of votes are blank or independent, and 2.7 could not answer.

Guilherme Boulos has the biggest numerical advantage in a second round simulation against José Luiz Datena: the PSOL federal deputy has a preference of 35.6% and the journalist, 27.5%. 34.4% of votes are blank and independent and 2.5 could not answer.