Coronavirus, Ricciardi: “The situation in hospitals is sometimes tragic. And Naples had to be closed”

ROMA – “The situation of hospitals is dramatic more or less all over Italy, in some it is even tragic. The system collapses if we are unable to treat patients who have other diseases besides covid”. So Walter Ricciardi, scientific advisor to the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza, on the broadcast A sheep’s day on Rai Radio Uno

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“Unfortunately, the national RT is higher than 1, I think 1.2-1.3 as an average – he continues Ricciardi – Of the 21 criteria, 4-5 are the really important parameters: RT, absolute number, positive numbers on the population, then how many people arrive in the emergency room, arrive in hospital and go to intensive care “.

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The data on the basis of which to place an area of ​​the country in a risk range rather than another “come from the Regions – he adds Ricciardi – so if the Regions send them promptly, completely and adequately, the decisions are made on the real data. If, on the other hand, for any reason the data is provided late or underestimated, it is clear that they make the region color in a little different way. Generally, if the data is insufficient, a lower color “.

No region is green but “we will have to go green again. Explains the minister’s consultant – We would all be happier when we all return green. But at the moment there is no region that can declare itself free from the risk of circulation” of the coronavirus. It was decided to identify the bands with the colors “because it is understandable to everyone”, he explains, answering the ironic question “what color are you?”, To which he replies: “I am yellow”, being in Lazio. The colors “are immediately understandable to everyone to understand the gravity of the situation”.

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As for the key parameters to be able to go green, that is, a situation in which the virus is no longer a threat, Ricciardi points out: “In my opinion 4-5 parameters are really important. The first is the contagion index Rt, which tells us how much it is accelerating and when it is less than 1 it means that the epidemic is regressing; the second is the absolute number “of cases; “the third is the percentage of positives on the population; and the fourth and fifth relate to health services, that is, how many people arrive in the emergency room, how many are hospitalized and how many go to intensive care. Of the 21 indicators, I would say that these are really important. The others draw from a complete analysis of what are the aspects for the control of the disease. For example, the parameters concerning the ability to take tests. If you do not have the ability to do them, you are in a weak condition. “

The interview

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It remains of the idea that “it would take a lockdown in Naples”. To the conductors who point out to him that, with the new Dpcm and the ministerial order that followed, the majority of the country is ‘yellow’, Ricciardi he replies “yes, but it is still a dangerous band – he warns – because in fact it can get worse at any moment if we do not take measures. I take the example of Naples: it is within a yellow region that is Campania, however already 2-3 weeks ago I said it had to be closed “. And even today, the professor of Hygiene of the Catholic University repeats that “surely the metropolitan area of ​​Naples is already an area at risk, indeed the data has even worsened. Campania is in the yellow zone because an average has been made on the data regional which then we must see if they are all confirmed “. But Ricciardi believes that “we need to extrapolate the data at the provincial level”.

Then talk about Christmas. “I imagine a prudent Christmas. In some regions, those better placed, there may be some mobility but I do not recommend crowded dinners, we should have sober celebrations”.

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