Without a global mass vaccination campaign, Covid-19 variants will soon prevail, prolonging the time needed to defeat the pandemic and dramatically increasing the number of infections and victims. This is revealed by a new survey – conducted by the People’s Vaccine Alliance (PVA) which includes Oxfam and Emergency – according to which two thirds of the 77 epidemiologists interviewed from 28 different countries warn that we have a maximum of one year to avoid overriding the efficacy of first-generation vaccines developed to date and limit virus mutations. One third believe that the time is less than 9 months and only less than 1 in 8 estimate that the available vaccines will work regardless of the mutation.
The vast majority of epidemiologists, 88%, believe that if the vaccine coverage rate does not increase, vaccine-resistant virus variants could appear in many countries.
Suspension of patents to increase production
According to PVA calculations, only 10% of the population of most developing countries will be vaccinated next year. Nearly three-quarters of the experts involved believe that technology sharing and the suspension of intellectual property are the tools needed to increase global dose production.
“As long as only a part of the world’s population has access to vaccines, the virus will be able to circulate, replicate quickly and therefore mutate. The data we have today suggest that we do not have much time, probably between 9 months and a year, before virus mutations that reduce the effectiveness of currently available vaccines develop and spread. This is a war that rich countries cannot win alone, ”explains Antonino Di Caro, a virologist at the Lazzaro Spallanzani National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Rome.
Providing vaccines for poorer countries
The survey shows how crucial it is to guarantee access to Covid vaccines as soon as possible, even in the poorest countries, given that the current inequality of access gives virus variants the time they need to multiply.
“Although it is now clear that only the exchange of technology and the suspension of intellectual property can guarantee an increase in available doses – said Sara Albiani, global health manager of Oxfam Italy, and Rossella Miccio, president – we are still witnessing the defense of Big Pharma monopolies by rich countries, the result being a handful of pharmaceutical giants who decide who should live or die. In early March, we saw the blocking of India and South Africa’s proposal to suspend intellectual property rights. At the moment, millions of people who have already been vaccinated in the US, UK or European countries feel safer, but, as the results of today’s survey show, there is a very high risk that there will be no a radical change in vaccine access policies, all efforts to date to be in vain. To make vaccines accessible even in poor countries today means, more than ever, protecting us all. ”
“We welcome the intention to organize a mass vaccination campaign in Italy in a short time, announced yesterday by the emergency commissioner Francesco Figliuolo, following the example of the efforts made in the Liguria region. But if Italy, together with the EU, does not fully commit to changing the approach to the causes that determine the lack of doses, it is possible that all the efforts that will be made in the coming months will be in vain “, added Albiani and Miccio.
“This is why we need to put pressure on the pharmaceutical giants to persuade them to give up their intellectual property rights over vaccines. If we were at war with a country called Covid, would governments leave vital decisions about production, supply and price to arms companies? Since vaccines are the best weapon we have against the pandemic, how long can world leaders wait to make policy decisions that reverse the trend and allow all vaccine companies to participate in the effort to win this battle? ” the two also said.
Current vaccines appear to be at least partially effective against the main variants, but if a second generation is needed, it will take several months before approval and until actual use. In the meantime, lockdowns and travel bans will be the only form of prevention to prevent new infections and deaths.
But the paradox – warns Oxfam and Emergency – is that at this rate, even second-generation vaccines that are being studied to combat virus variants could be subject to the monopoly regime of the pharmaceutical industry, so we could face from new with shortcomings.
A vicious circle, which will end only by making vaccines a global public good. Hence the urgent call for the governments of rich countries for a real change of course, starting with the discussions that will take place at the next meeting of the World Trade Organization, scheduled for April. PVA also reiterates its call on governments and pharmaceutical companies to share vaccine technology and development plans through the WHO Covid Technology Access Pool (CTAP).
Source: Rainews / Translation Cătălina Păunel (Rador)
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