So far, Japan has been able to keep the spread of the corona virus under control with school closings, no events, and more teleworking. Now the expert council warns of a viral explosion like in Europe. The cherry blossom could be a turning point.
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The magnificence of cherry blossoms is celebrated in Japan with large parties – here is the official celebration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last year. It is now feared that the corona virus will spread to cherry blossom parties.
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Despite its proximity and close ties to the country of origin China, Japan has so far been able to contain the coronavirus epidemic without large curfews. Almost all schools in the country were closed on February 27, and events ranging from large concerts to small press conferences and parties were canceled. Many companies also sent thousands of employees home to work from. But otherwise life went on, albeit with much less vigor.
Celebrate in crisis, but no all-clear
Many people still go out in Tokyo in the evenings and at weekends. Because restaurants, department stores and many cinemas are open. But they suffer from a loss of visitors, because many people stay at home and there are hardly any tourists at the same time. But the Japanese approach with consistent hygiene and targeted closings has so far prevented a crisis like that in Europe, Japan’s Council of Experts shows in its latest interim report on Thursday.
In Japan, the number of corona cases is increasing slowly but steadily
Number of confirmed coronavirus cases
1
Contains cases from the cruise ship “Diamond Princess”, which were listed separately later.
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Until then, only 892 infected people had tested positive. The experts assume that the real number is significantly higher, since only a few hundred tests for the corona virus have been carried out in Japan to date. This is criticized a lot because the neighboring country of South Korea has achieved good results with a strategy of mass tests. But Japan’s expert advice has so far limited the tests to people with symptoms and their direct contacts. At least the trend may be correct that the curve in Japan is even flatter than elsewhere. So far, only a few regions have had significantly higher patient numbers.
However, the experts do not give the all-clear. An explosive spread of the corona virus, as in Europe and parts of the United States, is also possible in Japan, the report expressly warns. There are areas in which the number of infections without known infection routes increases, which could lead to an explosive spread. Therefore, they cannot rule out an extensive attitude of public life like in Europe.
The cherry blossom becomes a test of self-discipline
This weekend could be a turning point. It is an annual tradition to marvel at the blossoms at large parties with family, friends and colleagues and at the same time to water them with a lot of alcohol. Now it has to be seen whether the Japanese, who have been quite disciplined so far, can resist this temptation this year.
If the population celebrates as usual, this could be dangerous, because the situation already seems to be at a tipping point in some regions. The northern island of Hokkaido had already declared a state of emergency at the end of February because the number of infected people had skyrocketed. Aichi, Toyota’s homeland, and Hyogo, in the vicinity of Japan’s second largest metropolis, Osaka, are currently the most likely candidates.
According to media reports, beds are already running out in Aichi. And in the Hyogo region, regional governments have called on the population to avoid unnecessary travel between the prefectures this long weekend. The governor of Osaka, Hirofumi Yoshimura, tried to shake up the population: “I think there can be an explosive spread in Hyogo at any time. And since the number of infected people in Osaka is also increasing, we have to be on alert. »
At the same time, the national government is considering gradually opening schools again at the beginning of the new school year on April 6 – at least in regions where there are few infections. Nevertheless: The experts demand that school closure remain an option if the infections increase.
One reason that the number of infections in Japan has risen comparatively slowly so far and that there are relatively few larger virus sources could be that there are no large churches or mosques in Japan where large groups of believers pray in closed rooms. This clearly distinguishes Japan from South Korea, where churches of the most diverse denominations thrive. The largest virus cluster there was a Christian sect – with more than 4,000 infected. The largest virus source in Japan, however, is a dim nightclub in Osaka.
The behavior change of the population counts
Even before the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic, many Japanese people followed the preventive measures that are now recommended worldwide, such as washing their hands regularly, refraining from touching when greeting (Japanese people bow) and wearing masks when they are ill. These rules are now being implemented even more consistently than usual. In addition, local governments, organizers, companies and the general public are largely responding to the government’s requests, even without penalty threats and coercive measures.
There are also overreactions. In the meantime, the term «coro-hara» has emerged, a combination of coronavirus and harassment. Coughing passengers on trains are reprimanded or mobbed, employees with coughs – even if only an allergic one – are sent home immediately. Telephone hotlines have already been set up, to which those affected can turn.
The experts prepare the nation for a long struggle
Against this background, the experts have hitherto advised on regionally adapted solutions and not on a uniform national approach. They want to try to prevent both an explosive epidemic and massive economic damage.
The study authors aim to prevent the epidemic so that they do not have to curfew. Therefore, further changes in behavior are necessary, according to Japan’s team of experts – and not for a short time. “We should prepare for a long fight,” they say.
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