“Covid activity continues to decline, slowly but surely,” notes Marc Penaud, the director general of Toulouse University Hospital. The plateau observed for a fortnight already begins to fall gradually. “We continue to have new cases that arise,” still tempers the Toulouse director. However, the influx of patients has nothing to do with the situation known a month ago. The opportunity for the caregivers of the structure to prepare themselves before the probable arrival of a second wave by the end of May.
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The situation at the Toulouse teaching hospital and in the nursing homes
Friday April 24, 2020, 71 people are still hospitalized in the building. Among them, 20 are in intensive care, while two others are in continuing care. In parallel, the university hospital center announces 354 home returns since the start of the pandemic. The human toll is 26 deaths in the structure.
In the Haute-Garonne nursing home, the teacher Yves Rolland, geriatrician at the Toulouse University Hospital, announces that 40 structures carried out massive screening. A total of 1,152 residents were tested for 81 positive cases detected. On the caregiver side, after 856 tests, the virus appeared in 21 people.
A total of 26 Ehpad and three independent residences in the department have recorded at least one or more cases of Covid-19. Among them, 13 Ehpad and an independent residence register more than one case of coronavirus. Since the start of the epidemic, 11 Ehpad residents died in Haute-Garonne, 6 directly in the establishment and 5 in care establishments. Regionally, 139 deaths in nursing homes in Occitania have been deplored since the start of the health crisis.
Read also: Coronavirus. Activity decreases at the Toulouse University Hospital which begins to think about deconfinement
Toulouse ready for the second wave?
Since the arrival of the coronavirus in France, the Toulouse region has been relatively untouched by Covid-19. Despite a significant increase in load at the end of March, the resuscitation services at the Toulouse University Hospital were never saturated.
Right now, Resuscitation capacity is always doubled. Out of 191 beds available (compared to 80 in normal situation, editor’s note), 109 welcome patients from all pathologies. Which is equivalent to a 55% occupancy rate. ” We have a large margin to accommodate other Covid patients “Assures Marc Penaud. Good news knowing that the director of the Toulouse University Hospital predicted, Friday, April 17, 2020, the probability of a second wave.
As part of this descending plateau, we remain vigilant, particularly on the likelihood, which is high, of an increase in Covid activity at the CHU from the end of May.
To avoid its impact, Professor Pierre Delobel, head of the infectious and tropical diseases department at the Toulouse University Hospital, reminded, Friday, April 24, of the importance of barrier gestures to limit a rebound in the spread of the virus.
Read also: Coronavirus. Activity decreases at the Toulouse University Hospital which begins to think about deconfinement
“We are expecting a long crisis”
“Barrier measures will apply everywhere to prevent a second wave “, He explains. Proper application of these actions could help limit the spread of the virus in an area where collective immunity is far from acquired.
Like most of western France, our region has been little affected. We do not yet have the seroprevalence figures (the share of the population already exposed to the virus, editor’s note) but it’s expected to be relatively low. IThere may be more patients vulnerable to a second wave. The problem remains generally the same everywhere else since even in very affected regions, there is a large majority of patients who do not have immunity.
Just because Toulouse has done relatively well for now does not mean that it will still be the case in a few weeks. Conversely, the Toulouse region may miss a second high-impact wave. With this coronavirus, the truth of one day is not necessarily that of the next. One thing is certain, compliance with the barrier measures will help reduce the spread of the virus after release from containment. Vincent Bounes, the owner of SAMU 31 warns:
People are careful, but sometimes they forget to wash their hands, they pay a visit to small children… The hospital is in a marathon configuration because we are expecting a long crisis. People need to have that in mind. The fact that we are talking about a deconfinement on Monday, May 11, 2020 does not mean that everyone will be able to go out and go for a walk.
Life before is not for now …
A seasonal boost?
But if the fight against Covid-19 received a boost from nature. With rising temperatures, especially, with the approach of the summer season, can the virus disappear on its own?
This hypothesis is, in particular, put forward by the professor from Marseille Didier raoult. In a video posted on his Twitter account where he reports on the epidemic situation in Marseille, the infectious disease specialist explains: “I do not predict the future. If things continue like this, one has the impression that what was one of the possibilities of this disease, that is to say a seasonal disease, is being realized. It is possible that within a month there will be no more cases at all in most temperate countries. This is one of the possibilities which is not negligible. “
New weekly scientific bulletin: lessons from short epidemics.https: //t.co/RkwEvslJsO
– Didier Raoult (@raoult_didier) April 21, 2020
Is the Toulouse University Hospital also optimistic? Not necessarily. Without criticizing the hypothesis put forward by the Marseillais, Professor Pierre Delobel prefers to play the card of caution.
We don’t have the answer. There is a general principle: the majority of seasonal respiratory viruses have, by definition, a winter seasonality. That doesn’t mean it’s for everyone. For example, MERS-CoV (a coronavirus present in the Middle East, editor’s note) which is the cousin of SARS-CoV-2 (the other name of the Covid-19 coronavirus which currently affects France, editor’s note), circulates in Saudi Arabia, in full summer and therefore with very hot temperatures. We don’t know how the Covid-19 will behave. In Singapore, for example, there is a growth in cases of Covid-19 when it is over 30 degrees.
Professor Delobel therefore prefers to remain cautious about a possible seasonality of the Covid-19. According to him, if the rise in temperatures “may contribute to a decrease in the epidemic”, it would be “unwise” to relax because summer is coming. “But all the better if we have a seasonal boost!” “
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