The United States has recorded 1,783 deaths from the new coronavirus in 24 hours, according to the 8:30 p.m. Thursday count from Johns Hopkins University.
This daily toll, lower than the previous day (+1973 dead), brings to 16,478 the total number of deaths recorded in the United States, the country most bereaved in the world by the pandemic after Italy.
For two consecutive days, Tuesday and Wednesday, the country recorded nearly 2,000 deaths in 24 hours, the worst daily tolls in the world since the start of the pandemic.
The United States alone also has more than a quarter of officially declared cases in the world, with more than 460,000 cases in total, according to figures from Johns Hopkins, updated continuously.
The United States has recorded more than 1,000 new daily deaths since the middle of last week, despite containment measures that have been gradually put in place, state by state.
New York State is by far the main focus of the American epidemic, with more than 7,000 dead. It posted a new record increase in the past 24 hours (+799), but the number of new hospitalizations has never been lower, Governor Andrew Cuomo said Thursday.
The situation stabilized Thursday in hospitals in New York and other parts of the United States, but authorities remained very cautious in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic and warned that a return to normalcy was not imminent, the country remaining vulnerable to a second wave of the coronavirus.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has announced a new death toll in his state, 799 in 24 hours, almost as many as entire countries like Italy or Spain at the height of their epidemics.
But these deaths are the sick of yesterday. Conversely, never have so few new patients been hospitalized and admitted to intensive care since the onset of the crisis: less than 100 in intensive care statewide in the past 24 hours. “Good news,” said Cuomo, who should mechanically “flatten” the death curve in the coming weeks.
Hospital bed shortages predicted by various models were averted, Cuomo said, but reiterated that the war was not over. “We are not out of the woods,” the governor said.
There will be no sudden lifting of the confinement decreed 18 days ago. His state will turn from red to orange and not directly to green, he said. Millions of employees and workers will need to be tested first to decide who has had the coronavirus and is immune.
In New Jersey, Louisiana and Michigan, where the virus has killed thousands of people, signs of slowing the rate of contagion are appearing. “Social distancing is starting to take effect,” New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said Thursday, referring to “real progress”.
President Donald Trump is in a hurry to reopen the country and restart a stricken economy. His Treasury Secretary ruled Thursday that businesses could probably “restart” in May.
But the country will have to be patient, hammer experts and public officials, and the population will permanently change its habits as long as there is no vaccine, in order to prepare to respond to a second wave – since the coronavirus will not have disappeared.
The most cited model (IHME), which takes into account how the epidemic has evolved in China and Europe, has in recent days revised down several times the estimated toll of the first wave in the United States: from 93,000 to 82,000 and then to 60,000 deaths.
“It’s thanks to the Americans doing a good job. Social distancing, etc. Keep going! Donald Trump tweeted.
The American “peak” would be reached this weekend, according to this model used in particular at the White House, but considered too optimistic by certain States, which prefer to combine several models, like weather forecasts, no model being perfect.
“New normal”
When will the deconfinement? Not until June, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio warned Thursday.
It will be gradual and regional, explained Anthony Fauci, director of the American Institute of Infectious Diseases, a member of the working group that advises Donald Trump on the epidemic.
First, because the confinement orders were decreed state by state, by the governors, and not nationally by the president, who only issued distancing and teleworking instructions until April 30.
Secondly, because the United States, as large as a continent, is not hit with the same intensity everywhere.
California, after fearing the worst, was reassured enough to start donating life support and medical equipment to other states. Washington state, which recorded the first case on Jan.21, closed the temporary hospital that the military had installed on Wednesday.
Rather than a return to life before, we must prepare for a “new normal”, say experts.
“As long as most people don’t have immunity, going back to normal activities will kick start the contagions again,” wrote Tom Frieden, former head of the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC).
It offers conditions for any deconfinement: widely available screening tests; plans to isolate the sick, and trace and quarantine their contacts; and a general upgrade of hospitals to handle any future waves.
However, the country is not ready. One million tests are now performed per week in the United States, according to Caitlin Rivers of John Hopkins University, which is better but still far from sufficient. These tests still find 20 to 40% of positive cases, while South Korea is at 2%. This means that “we have not yet discovered the full extent of our epidemic,” she told reporters on Thursday.
The rules of social distancing will have to be maintained in the medium term, she insists like many experts.
And restaurants could have to reopen with a limited number of tables, and schools in a quirky way, argues Tom Frieden.
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