The big epidemic of coronavirus is behind us, notes the scientific community. But at the same time, the virus is still circulating while the Prime Minister is due to announce new lifting of restrictions tomorrow.
The coronavirus is not dead. But its end seems near. While all indicators are green, the Covid-19 pandemic, which killed 28,400 in France, continues its slow decline observed already for several days by the scientific community (drop of 2.78% in the number of patients in intensive care). They were 6,457 on April 15, they are only 1,609 on May 25, a month later. But strange paradox, it is still too early to claim victory. We are still in this in-between world, living half freed from an epidemic burden, the grip of which is loosening a little more each day.
“The virus is still circulating,” hammer the health authorities, who call for caution and the essential maintenance of the barrier gestures despite satisfactory signals and announcers of a beautiful summer looming. Especially since all the countries of the northern hemisphere are also recording a marked decline in the pandemic.
Long-awaited announcements
It is in this rather favorable context that the Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe, presents tomorrow the second phase of deconfinement. Long-awaited announcements with probably the opening of bars and restaurants, from June 2, and the lifting of travel restrictions beyond 100 km. The horizon could also be cleared for theaters, sports competitions and cinemas, frozen in the dark since March 17. We should also know more about the reopening of high schools and the maintenance or not of the oral French counting for the baccalaureate.
For France colored in red (32 departments of Grand Est and Île-de-France, against 69 in green) where the lifting of confinement since May 11 has been more restrictive, the reopening of parks and gardens is highly hoped . The end of the tunnel has never been so close after a 55-day marathon confinement, unprecedented in the modern history of our country. The fact remains that all hopes are now turned to these famous days after. The pandemic is receding in the northern hemisphere where indicators and health reports are encouraging. The tsunami wave ended thanks in part to the effect of containment. “As in every epidemic, there is a rise and a fall, a beginning and an end which can be spread over several days or several months”, recalls Professor Yves Buisson, epidemiologist and president of the Covid-19 group of the Academy of Medicine.
Falling contagion rate
In early March, a person who tested positive for coronavirus could infect three others, on average. Today, a patient can infect less than one person. It is this famous rate of contagion, called “R0”, which is also indicative of the marked decline in the epidemic. Scientists say that if this rate continues, the epidemic is not expected to last very long. To these objective indicators are added the positive effects of these two months of sanitary confinement, the consequences of which will be fully measured within a week.
“Containment was very useful at the time of the peak of the epidemic, which could have gone higher and blown up our care capacities,” assures Professor Buisson.
This type of coronavirus however conceals its dark and mysterious part. If scientists know its cousins, SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome), Covid-19 is still much less known even if it proves to be less lethal. In 2003, SARS killed 10% of those infected. In 2010, MERS killed 30%. The less killer Covid-19 appears much more contagious, unlike its predecessors.
There remains a central question: when can we consider that the Covid-19 virus has completely disappeared? “When there are no more new cases, it can be said to be over,” said the epidemiologist.
The appearance of numerous outbreaks of contagion in France in recent days shows that the virus is still active. These “clusters” identified by the health authorities who are breaking the chain of contamination by the immediate and systematic search for all contact cases remain for the moment well under control. These emerging foci did not give rise to a second massive wave of contagion.
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