- Jose Carlos Cueto
- BBC News World
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image source, Getty Images
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World attention is focused on the conflict between Ukraine and Russia that has the planet on edge.
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During these weeks, the harsh reality of a war in the middle of the European continent has displaced the coronavirus pandemic from the headlines, but it continues to harm public health.
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Although many countries already have high rates of vaccination and natural immunity, we remain exposed to new outbreaks of the pathogen, the threat of new variants, and the uncertainty of whether we will need more vaccines.
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Much of the world is experiencing a new uptick in cases. China, for example, this week reimposed harsh lockdowns not seen since the start of 2020.
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This March 11 marks two years since the pandemic was declared.
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BBC Mundo explains three key developments about the coronavirus so far in 2022.
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1. What is deltacron?
This term has appeared frequently on various news sites in recent weeks.
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It is so called because it is a “recombination” of the delta and omicron variants, but not a new variant as such.
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“I would like to clarify that there is no new variant called ‘deltacron’. Use of this terminology should be avoided,” says Dr. Sylvain Aldighieri of the Pan American Health Organization.
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“Recombination is a natural phenomenon described in different viruses as a mutation mechanism to exchange genomic material. This can occur when two viruses of the same species but genetically different infect the same cell in the same individual,” Aldighieri added.
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Deltacron is not a new variant of coronavirus nor does it cause concern, although scientists continue to monitor.
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The first cases of deltacron were detected in France in January 2022.
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Since then, it has been registered in Belgium, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and, more recently, in the United Kingdom, the United States and Brazil.
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The total number of cases is still low.
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“There is currently no evidence of increased transmission patterns or changes in clinical outcomes due to this recombination event. Although no specific public health threat is expected, genomic surveillance should be maintained and strengthened to detect any changes in behavior early.” of the virus,” says Aldighieri.
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2. Why are cases increasing globally?
After more than a month of decline, covid cases have increased again in the world since last week.
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New infections increased 8% in the week of March 7 to 13 compared to the previous week. In total, 11 million new cases were registered.
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The biggest rise was in the Western Pacific region, including South Korea and China, where cases grew 25% and deaths 27%.
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Africa, on the other hand, also saw a 12% rise in new infections and a 14% increase in deaths.
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image source, Getty Images
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In Europe, while no increase in deaths has been recorded, a number of experts have expressed concern that the continent may be facing a new wavewith new cases increasing since the beginning of March in countries such as Austria, Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.
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The United States and Latin America continue to see their infections drop, although some experts think that what is seen in other regions of the world may soon generalize to other continents.
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And this, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), could be just the tip of the icebergas many countries have stopped mass-diagnosing their populations while lifting restrictions.
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“The increase in cases worldwide is worrying. It reminds us that we are not yet in an endemic situation with a stable number of cases or in a scenario where the levels of infection are explained through seasonality,” he tells BBC Mundo. Professor Aris Katzourakis, from the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom.
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“I agree with relaxing the restrictions because you can’t think of it as an emergency after two years,” says Antonella Viola, a professor of immunology at the University of Padua in Italy.
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image source, Getty Images
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“We just have to avoid thinking that covid is no more. And, consequently, maintain the necessary strict measures, essential for the continuous monitoring and tracking of cases, and maintain the obligation to wear masks in closed or crowded places.”
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Among the factors that explain the increase in cases are this relaxation of containment measures, the abandonment of massive diagnostic tests, the decrease in the protection of vaccines and the high prevalence of omicron and his subvariante BA.2, the most communicable till the date.
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3. Which variant is currently dominant?
Ómicron caused global alarm by triggering new infections around the world in late 2021 and early 2022.
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Now its joint action with the BA.2 subvariant continues to explain in part this new increase in cases.
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“The dominance of BA.2 indicates a high probability that its high transmissibility and immune evasion are part of this global increase,” says Katzourakis.
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There is no evidence that BA.2 causes more severe disease nor that some other variant is pushing the global increase in cases.
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In late February, the WHO clarified that the BA.2 sublineage should continue to be considered a variant of concern and remain classified as omicron.
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Omicron and his BA.2 sublineage remains the world’s dominant variant.
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4. Will more vaccines or doses be needed?
The decline in vaccine protection seems to be another cause behind the global increase in cases.
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It is already quite clear that immunity declines over time. There are people who have been infected even having three vaccines or having previously been infected with covid.
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This is because protection against infection wears off soonerbut our defenses against becoming seriously ill or dying last much longer.
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“The available vaccines have a limited and transitory effectiveness against asymptomatic and mild infection, but they provide much greater and longer-lasting protection against serious diseases,” Professor Adam Finn, from the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom, explains to BBC Mundo.
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Similarly, this decrease in protection can generate uncertainty about whether we will need more booster doses or new vaccines in the short or medium term.
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“The decline in the protective effect of vaccines will play an increasing role, as more people lose protection against infection and to some extent against increased severity,” says Katzourakis.
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A significant decrease in immunity can lead to new waves of covid and, in the long run, greater hospital pressure.
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image source, Getty Images
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We may have “quiet” periods of covid and others where it hits us back when enough immunity has waned.
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How protected we are is something that scientists check frequently.
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“Some countries are already mobilizing a fourth dose for certain groups of patients. It is key to analyze the data to decide how quickly and how far to extend this strategy,” says Katzourakis.
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“It is very likely that we will see the need for another dose of the covid-19 vaccine this year, either another booster with the original formula or a new one. The time interval since the last dose remains to be seen,” he adds to BBC Mundo on the other hand John O’Horo, doctor in infectious diseases of the Mayo Clinic in the United States.
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“Future policy decisions about booster doses are likely to be guided by the need to target those most at risk of severe illness, primarily the elderly, but also those with underlying conditions that result in a worse prognosis.” Professor Finn.
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Looking further ahead, work is already underway on a new generation of coronavirus vaccines that may offer greater long-range protection.
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