Confirm total closure and travel bans for another two weeks, considering the possibility of granting some derogations, albeit minimal, for companies. this is the hypothesis he works on the government ahead of 3 aprile, when it expires the decree signed on March 22 by the Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to stop the coronavirus infection with lObligation for everyone to stay at home. With the awareness that it may take weeks, maybe a few months, to return to a normal life. Is that what will happen in May will be decisive precisely to understand how and when Italy can declare the emergency over. A line shared with Silvio Brusaferro and Franco Locatelli – presidents respectively of the Istituto Superiore di Sanit and of the Superior Council of Sanità – the top management of the health institutions that on Friday they spoke explicitlyto: The epidemic has slowed down its path, but containment measures should not be stopped.
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The value of R0
From a mathematical point of view it will be possible to believe that you had won against coronavirus only when the value ofR0 (the zero-age, the contagiousness index)will be less than 1. It means that it is necessary to arrive at the moment in which for each infected individual there will be less than one new infected person. And this is enough to understand how long the road can still be. This is why it is necessary to continue to respect the rules and why it is essential to keep the distance of at least one meter when going out to work, shopping, or in any case when you come into contact with other people. To date, the prolongation of the inevitable social distancing measures. We are not in a markedly declining phase but in a phase, albeit encouraging of containment, underlines Brusaferro, suggesting the possible path that we intend to follow. And to make it even clearer use an eloquent metaphor: We have not yet climbed, we are about to approach the top.
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Two more weeks
The first stop will therefore be April 3 when a new Dpcm will be signed that – unless a further negative trend of infection – will confirm the measures currently in force until April 18. The economic difficulties facing companies, even medium-small ones, convince Palazzo Chigi about the need to carry out constant monitoring which can lead to an evaluation with respect to some derogations. In fact, there remains the concern to keep the country from a psychological and social point of view, as is repeated in government meetings and with the Regions, aware that even the slightest relaxation of the prohibitions now in force risks causing the number of infections to rise again and therefore to extend for a much longer period the lockdown Italian. And therefore we will evaluate with entrepreneurs and unions whether there may be productive sectors which – while maintaining the utmost rigor with respect to social distancing and all the possibilities of smart working – can begin to restart.
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The decrees of May
Only in the following two weeks, a further check can be made on suitable measures to limit the infection. The possibility that the bans will be lifted with a single decree has already been ruled out. However, it will be a gradual and very slow recovery because, as Brusaferro himself points out, we will have to imagine a few months in which to take careful measures to avoid a recovery of the epidemic curve. This is why the Minister of Education has ruled out a return to school for April 3, suggesting that you could not go back to school except for the middle school exams and for your high school diploma. And because it is thought to continue to prohibit entry into Italy from abroad. The indicators to consider are different. Since 20 March the curve most followed by the Italians – the epidemic one – it seems to diminish in the ascent in many regions, including Lombardy, while Lazio and Campania have opportunities to contain growth, as confirmed by Brusaferro. But the value of R0 is still much higher than that of 1.
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March 28, 2020 (change March 28, 2020 | 06:02)
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