How and how fast is the coronavirus spread and what is its medical impact? 94 Citoyens takes stock each week on the evolution and trends in the number of clusters, people detected positive for the coronavirus, Covid-19 patients hospitalized and in intensive care, and deaths by age and by department of Ile-de-France. of France. A barometer in fifteen graphics to visualize the progression of the epidemic.
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Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of October 12
Coronavirus barometer as of October 19
224,323 positive cases for SARS-CoV-2 in Ile-de-France since May 13
In its latest epidemiological bulletin, Santé Publique France indicates that 224,323 people have tested positive for Covid-19 in Ile-de-France since May 13 (Non-consolidated data).
42,000 new cases the week of October 12
The progression of new cases is accelerating in Ile-de-France. From 8,000 to 24,000 per week during the month of September, the number has increased rapidly since the beginning of October. Within a week, the number of cases increased by more than a third, from less than 24,000 in the week of September 28 to more than 36,000 in the week of October 5 and 42,000 in the week of October 12. . The week of October 19 is expected to exceed 42,000.
Warning : the data for the week of October 19 are not yet complete, hence the impression of a decrease on the graph below, but nearly 37,335 cases were already detected on the first 5 days of the week against less than 30,000 the first 5 days of the previous week, which augurs well for a new progression
Monday catch-up peaks
From day to day, we see a peak on Monday, because there are fewer tests done on weekends. These peaks also reflect the increase, with 6,900 cases on October 5, 8,500 on October 12 and 9,800 on October 19.
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The positivity rate jumps
Around 3.5% during deconfinement, the test positivity rate had fallen below 1% at the beginning of July before gradually rising. It crossed 5% in early September, 6-7% in mid-September, reached 10% in early October and then 13% in mid-October, despite an increasing number of tests performed. The week of October 19, it exceeded 16%.
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Since October 21, Santé Publique France has been offering details of the positivity rate at the municipal level and not only at the departmental level. See the map below.
–More than 255,000 tests per week in Ile-de-France
If at the end of August at the beginning of September, the number of tests had decreased, it has increased sharply since. It went from 176,000 to almost 216,000 between the week of September 28 and that of October 5, up more than 20% from one week to the next, then to 255% the week of October 12, up 27.5%.
Warning : in the graph below, the week of October 19 is not complete and only takes into account the numbers from October 19 to 22.
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Screening for Covid-19 in Ile-de-France instructions for use
A regional incidence rate of more than 400 positive Covids per 100,000 inhabitants
In the Ile-de-France region, the incidence rate of Covid-19 positive people per 100,000 inhabitants, over a sliding week of 7 days, is 404 as of October 22, 343 a week ago. At the national level, it is 340 against 234 the previous week. The highest rate is in the Auvergne Rhône-Alpes region where it is 606 against 368 a week ago.
–Detail by municipality of Ile-de-France
Since October 21, Santé Publique France has been offering details of the incidence rate of positive Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants at the municipal level and no longer just at the departmental level. See the map below.
–Progress in all departments
The increase concerns all the departments of Ile-de-France while remaining stronger in the heart of the agglomeration.
Warning, the week of October 19 only includes the first 5 days.
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The proportion of people over 40 continues to increase
In terms of age group, the positive cases detected still mainly concern young people, unlike the first wave. But the progression of other age groups continues. The 20-29 age group represented 21.84% the week of October 12 against 25.29% the previous week, steadily decreasing since the end of August, when it had climbed to 37%. The proportion of 40-49 year olds, who represented 11.20% of covid + in mid-August and 15.55% the week of October 5, rose to 16.82% the week of 12. In general, all classes of age above 40 progresses between the week of October 5 and that of October 12.
Below is the evolution of the proportion per week, since the start of deconfinement. (Data for the week of October 12 only relates to the first 4 days)
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Please note, the week of October 19 only includes the first 5 days.
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About fifty new clusters every week in Ile-de-France
As of October 21, 2020, the results (excluding nursing homes and restricted family environments) amounted to 672 clusters included since May 8 in the Île-de-France region (versus 624 on October 7), i.e. 48 new clusters of one week in the other. Unlike in previous weeks, Public Health France no longer specifies the number of active clusters on all the clusters detected since May (which was 157 in the week of October 14) but only on the number of clusters detected in September and October, i.e. 94 active clusters as of October 21 out of 418 detected in September and October. Last week, Santé Publique France noted that, “In addition to a probable underestimation of the number of clusters, only 3.6% of cases (SI-DEP, period from 05/13/2020 to 10/11/2020) are attached to a cluster” and deduced that this indicator “Seems increasingly irrelevant to monitoring current modes of SARSCoV-2 transmission.”
“Over the period of September-October 2020, 418 clusters were identified in Île-de-France, including 94 active clusters (22.5%). They mainly affect schools and universities (42.6%), health establishments (20.5%), and private and public companies (18.2%) (Table 2). More than 3,700 cases have been linked to these clusters, i.e. 2.1% of all confirmed cases for the same period (SI-DEP, period from 09/01/2020 to 10/18/2020 in Île-de -France). The average number of cases ([min; max]) attached to a cluster varies between 4 ([3;4] in social accommodation and integration establishments, 4 [3;6] in a social structure for helping children and 12 ([3;126] in schools and universities.
Among the 418 clusters identified in September and October 2020, 86 clusters are highly critical (20.6%). The communities for which the proportion of high-criticality clusters is the highest are: EMS for disabled people (40.9%), health establishments (34.9%) and public or private events (23.1% ) ”, details Public Health France.
–Download the latest Public Health France bulletin on cluster surveillance in Ile-de-France.
+ 46% of Covid-19 patients hospitalized over the last week
After jumping the week of September 14 and decreasing the week of September 21, the number of people admitted to hospital due to Covid-19 has slightly resumed its progression since the week of September 28 in an increasingly sustained manner the week of October 5, reaching 1,957 people the week of October 12. The number jumped during the week of October 19, rising to 2,860 new hospitalizations, up 46% over one week.
The number of people newly hospitalized in a week exceeds for the first time that of the start of confinement
During the first week of confinement last March, the number of people hospitalized the week of March 16 was 2,302.
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The number of returns home lower than the number of new hospitalizations
The number of hospital discharges continues to increase but since September 21, the number of home returns (in green below) is lower than the number of new hospitalizations (in blue below).
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Below is the curve of people discharged from hospital, cumulative since mid-March.
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The total number of people hospitalized continues to increase
As a result, the total number of people hospitalized in Ile-de-France resumed its progression.
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The number of Covid-19 patients admitted to intensive care rises to 500 per week
The number of people entering intensive care or intensive care due to Covid-19 in Ile-de-France continues to increase from one week to the next, with now more than 500 admissions per week against just under 400 new entries last week
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The total number of people in intensive care for Covid-19 represents almost two-thirds of the number of places available in normal times
As of October 25, the number of people in intensive care due to Covid-19 in Ile-de-France was 751, representing nearly two-thirds of the total number of intensive care places in Ile-de-France ( 1200), against less than half last week (580). A worrying threshold which is part of the reasons for the partial reconfinement in the region. Since September 23, the total number of people in intensive care in Ile-de-France has exceeded that of the start of confinement. It was 294 on March 18. However, the number of patients newly in intensive care is still lower than that of the first wave – to this day. Compared to the first wave, the increase in the number of day-to-day sheave patients remains lower. As a reminder, the peak of the first wave was reached on April 8, with 2,668 patients in intensive care in Ile-de-France.
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Read also:
Partial reconfinement in Ile-de-France: detail of the measures
Ile-de-France: certificates exempting from the curfew
Sharp increase in deaths
The number of people who died from Covid-19 in hospital reached 8,708 on Sunday, October 25. It was 8,441 on Sunday, October 18, or 267 more people in one week against 177 people the week before and a hundred the week before. From week to week, the increase in the number of dead people increases sharply. On October 22, 49 people died of Covid-19 on the same day in Ile-de-France. The figures now correspond to those at the start of containment
(In the diagram below, the large number of patients who died in Essonne the week of September 14 corresponds to a catch-up in the transmission of files from one of the hospitals in this department).
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