Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of December 28

How and how fast is the coronavirus spread and what is its medical impact? 94 Citoyens takes stock every week on the evolution and trends in the number of clusters, people detected positive for the coronavirus, Covid-19 patients hospitalized and in intensive care, and deaths by age and by department of Ile-de-France. of France. A barometer in fifteen graphs to visualize the progression of the epidemic.

17,003 new cases of Covid the week of December 14

17,003 new cases of Covid were detected in Ile-de-France the week of December 14, against 14,859 the previous week (according to data from Public Health France consolidated as of December 28). For the second week in a row since the start of the second wave, the number of contagions is rising while it has been steadily decreasing since the peak in the week of October 26 (64,322). On the first 4 days of the week of December 14, the number of new cases is 11,937 (higher than the figure for the first 4 days of last week which was 11,558).

In total, 516,013 positive cases have been recorded in the region since deconfinement, according to data from Public Health France as of December 28.

Warning : the data for the week of December 21 only concern the first 4 days.

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Sharp increase in pre-holiday testing

The increase is partly explained by a very strong increase in the number of tests before the holidays.

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Monday’s peak continues to rise

The peak observed on Monday goes up for the third time since the peak of October 26. From day to day, in fact, there is a peak on Monday, because there are fewer tests carried out on weekends. Those spikes were testament to the vertical increase in the number of cases until October 26, when the number of tests peaked at 14,223 positive cases in one day. This peak then decreased to 2854 on Monday, November 30. On Monday, December 7, however, it rose again slightly to 2,981, and climbed back to 3,510 on December 14, then to 3,670 on December 21, according to consolidated data as of December 28.

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The acceleration of positive cases is stronger in Paris and in the west

Department	Number of positive tests week of December 7	Number of positive tests week of December 14	Variation
Paris (75)	2315	3224	39,27%
Hauts-de-Seine (92)	1536	1947	26,76%
Essonne (91)	1301	1528	17,45%
Yvelines (78)	1554	1764	13,51%
Val-de-Marne (94)	2021	2269	12,27%
Val d’Oise (95)	1621	1810	11,66%
Seine-et-Marne (77)	1680	1847	9,94%
Seine-Saint-Denis (93)	2468	2614	5,92%

The positivity rate stagnates

Nationally, the 7-day rolling positivity rate (therefore slightly different from the day-to-day positivity rate) was 3.4% as of December 22. For two weeks, the figures take into account people and not tests to avoid duplication. We therefore calculate the number of people tested positive according to the number of people tested. This new method caused a sharp decrease between the week before December 3 and that before December 10.

Since October 21, Santé Publique France has been offering details of the positivity rate at the municipal level and no longer only at the departmental level. See the map below.

Read also:
Screening for Covid-19 in Ile-de-France instructions for use

The regional incidence rate goes up

In the Ile-de-France region, the incidence rate of Covid-19 positive people per 100,000 inhabitants, over a sliding week of 7 days, which had reached 451 the week of October 23 to 29, gradually increased. dropped to 69.4 the week of Nov 27 to Dec 3. It climbed back to 111.7 the week of December 4 to 10 and to 131.3 the week of December 11 to 17, then to 141 the week of December 18 to 24.

Nationally, it is 149.8 per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to 134.6 last week. The strongest rates remain in the East.

Detail by department of Ile-de-France

Department of Ile-de-France	Incidence rate December 18-24
Essonne (91)	119,8
Hauts-de-Seine (92)	128,6
Yvelines (78)	123,3
Seine-et-Marne (77)	136,2
Paris (75)	163,1
Val d’Oise (95)	137,7
Seine-Saint-Denis (93)	151
Val-de-Marne (94)	155,6

Detail by municipality of Ile-de-France

Since October 21, Santé Publique France has been offering details of the incidence rate of positive Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants at the municipal level and no longer just at the departmental level. See the map below.

The distribution of cases by age relatively stable

Below is the evolution of the proportion per week, since the start of deconfinement. There is a proportion of the ages affected which mainly concerned the oldest in the spring and then the young during the summer, followed by a gradual rebalancing.

(Data for the week of December 21 are only for the first 4 days)

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Please note, the week of December 21 only includes the first 4 days.

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The number of people newly hospitalized continues to decline

After four weeks of decline, the number of new hospitalizations for coronavirus in Ile-de-France increased the week of December 7, from 1,538 to 1,419. The peak was reached the week of November 2 (3,786 hospitalizations according to the latest updated figures) It decreases again for the 2nd consecutive week with 1341 people against 1419.

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The number of returns home remains lower than the number of new hospitalizations

The number of patients returned to their homes remains below new hospitalizations. While 1,341 were hospitalized for Covid-19 the week of December 21, 1,047 patients returned home.

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The total number of people hospitalized is approaching 5,000

After reaching 6,663 on November 15, the number of patients hospitalized for Covid-19 in Ile-de-France stabilizes globally around 5,000.

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The number of intensive care admissions decreases

The number of people entered in intensive care or intensive care due to Covid-19 in Ile-de-France, which had risen last week after 4 weeks of decrease, from 223 new admissions the week of November 30 to 271 the week from December 7, goes down for the 2nd consecutive week. While there were 258 ICU admissions the week of December 14, there were only 216 the week of December 21. The peak was reached the week of November 2 with nearly 600 admissions.

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The total number of people in intensive care for Covid-19 stabilizes

The total number of intensive care patients is also increasing slightly. As of December 27, 574 Covid-19 patients were in intensive care or intensive care in Ile-de-France against 610 patients the previous Sunday. The peak of the second wave was reached on November 12, with 1,138 patients.

In order to anticipate this second wave and increase the total number of intensive care places from 1,200 to 1,775 at the regional level, the other hospital services had deprogrammed up to 50% of their activity.

Since September 23, the total number of people in intensive care in Ile-de-France had exceeded that of the start of confinement which was 294 on March 18. As a reminder, the peak of the first wave was reached on April 8 with 2,668 patients in intensive care in Ile-de-France.

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Read also:
Ile-de-France: reconfinement instructions for use
Coronavirus in Val-de-Marne: progress report with Eric Véchard (ARS 94)
Val-de-Marne: how emergencies face the 2nd wave of Covid-19
Covid-19 in emergencies: the figures in Ile-de-France

11,959 people have died in Covid-19 hospital since March in Ile-de-France

The number of people who died from Covid-19 in hospital exceeded 10,000 in Ile-de-France the week of November 15. This Sunday, December 27, the number reached 11,959 people against 11,722 the previous Sunday, or 237 people in one week against 257 people the previous week.

(In the diagram below, the large number of patients who died in Essonne the week of September 14 corresponds to a catch-up in the transmission of files from one of the hospitals in this department).

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The peak in the number of people who died from the coronavirus was reached in mid-April, during the first wave. On April 7 alone, 276 people had died from Covid-19 in the region. In this second wave, the peak was observed on November 9 with 113 deaths.

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Attention, change of thermometer since December 8. Below are the explanations from Public Health France
“Since December 8, after having checked the quality of the data reported, all the results of RT-PCR or Antigenic tests enter into the production of national and territorial epidemiological indicators (incidence rate, positivity rate and screening rate) useful for monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic. In addition, the epidemic is prolonged over time and screening capacities have increased, leading to an increasing frequency of people tested several times. Thus, an adjustment of the deduplication methods for the patients receiving repeated tests and therefore of the definition of the persons tested was necessary. Public Health France, in its epidemiological approach centered on patients, has therefore adapted its methods so that these indicators in particular best reflect the proportion of infected people among the population tested. These developments have no impact on the trends and interpretation of the dynamics of the epidemic, which remain the same. More precise data relating to the tests (incidence and positivity) are also published by Public Health France (SI-DEP data). ”
See detailed explanations on the new calculation methods

This change modifies the data previously established in the past weeks

It is important to note that “Before making this change effective, Public Health France recalculated from these new methods all the indicators (incidence rate, positivity, screening) produced since May 13, at each relevant territorial level (region, department, commune, IRIS). ”, indicates Public Health France.

Read also:
Please note, the data having been modified by the new calculation methods introduced on December 8, and our charts being systematically updated, the figures indicated during the barometers are likely to be slightly out of step with the charts.
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