Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of December 21

How and how fast is the coronavirus spread and what is its medical impact? 94 Citoyens takes stock every week on the evolution and trends in the number of clusters, people detected positive for the coronavirus, Covid-19 patients hospitalized and in intensive care, and deaths by age and by department of Ile-de-France. of France. A barometer in fifteen graphics to visualize the progression of the epidemic.

14,859 new cases of Covid the week of December 7

14,859 new cases of Covid were detected in Ile-de-France the week of December 7, against 12,806 the previous week (according to data from Public Health France consolidated as of December 20). For the first time since the start of the second wave, and taking into account the new indicators, the number of contagions is rising while it has been steadily decreasing since the peak in the week of October 26 (64,322). On the first 4 days of the week of December 14, the number of new cases is 11,558 (higher than the figure for the first 4 days of last week which was around 9,600).

A total of 498,571 positive tests have been carried out in the region since deconfinement, according to data from Public Health France as of December 20.

Warning : the data for the week of December 14th only concerns the first 4 days.

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Monday’s peak rises sharply

The peak observed on Monday goes up for the second time since the peak of October 26, more accentuated than last week. From day to day in fact, we observe a peak on Monday, because there are fewer tests performed on weekends. Those spikes were testament to the vertical increase in the number of cases until October 26, when the number of tests peaked at 14,223 positive cases in one day. This peak then decreased to 2854 on Monday, November 30. On Monday, December 7, however, it rose again slightly to 2,970, and climbed back to 3,487 on December 14, according to consolidated data from December 20.

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The acceleration of positive cases is stronger in the dense zone

Department	Number of positive tests week of november 30	Number of positive tests week of December 7	Variation
Paris (75)	1879	2303	22,57%
Val-de-Marne (94)	1698	2021	19,02%
Seine-Saint-Denis (93)	2110	2450	16,11%
Hauts-de-Seine (92)	1327	1535	15,67%
Essonne (91)	1198	1303	8,76%
Yvelines (78)	1449	1548	6,83%
Val d’Oise (95)	1518	1619	6,65%
Seine-et-Marne (77)	1627	1680	3,26%

The positivity rate stagnates

Nationally, the 7-day rolling positivity rate (therefore slightly different from the day-to-day positivity rate) was 5.2% as of December 17, compared to 6.3% the previous week. It was 10.8% the week before but the calculation method changed ten days ago. The figures now take into account people and not tests to avoid duplication. We therefore calculate the number of people tested positive according to the number of people tested. This new method caused a sharp decrease between the week before December 3 and that before December 10.

Since October 21, Santé Publique France has been offering details of the positivity rate at the municipal level and not only at the departmental level. See the map below.

Read also:
Screening for Covid-19 in Ile-de-France instructions for use

The regional incidence rate goes up

In the Ile-de-France region, the incidence rate of Covid-19 positive people per 100,000 inhabitants, over a sliding week of 7 days, which had reached 451 the week of October 23 to 29, has gradually increased. dropped to 69.4 the week of Nov 27 to Dec 3. It climbed back to 111.7 the week of December 4-10 and to 131.3 the week of December 11-17.

At the national level, it is 134.6 per 100,000 inhabitants, against 114 last week and 87 the week before. The strongest rates remain in the East.

Detail by department of Ile-de-France

Department of Ile-de-France	Incidence rate December 11-17
Essonne (91)	106,1
Hauts-de-Seine (92)	112,5
Yvelines (78)	113,1
Seine-et-Marne (77)	122,5
Paris (75)	135,3
Val d’Oise (95)	141,8
Seine-Saint-Denis (93)	152,7
Val-de-Marne (94)	163,5

Detail by municipality of Ile-de-France

Since October 21, Santé Publique France has been offering details of the incidence rate of positive Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants at the municipal level and no longer just at the departmental level. See the map below.

Increase in the proportion of positive cases among 20-40 year olds

In terms of age group, the two growing segments between the weeks of November 30 and December 7 are 20-29 year olds and 30-39 year olds, according to data from Public Health France as of December 20.

Below is the evolution of the proportion per week, since the start of deconfinement. We can see a proportion of the ages affected which mainly concerned the oldest in the spring and then the young during the summer, followed by a gradual rebalancing.

(Data for the week of December 14 relates only to the first 4 days)

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Please note, the week of December 14 only includes the first 4 days.

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The number of newly hospitalized people decreases again

After four weeks of decline, the number of new hospitalizations for coronavirus in Ile-de-France had increased the week of December 7, from 1,538 to 1,419. The peak was reached the week of November 2 (3,786 hospitalizations according to the latest updated figures)

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The number of returns home drops below the number of new hospitalizations

The number of patients returned to their homes is once again below that of new hospitalizations. While 1,538 were hospitalized for Covid-19, 1,465 patients returned home.

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The total number of people hospitalized is approaching 5,000

After reaching 6,663 on November 15, the number of patients hospitalized for Covid-19 in Ile-de-France stabilized globally around 5,000.

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The number of intensive care admissions decreases slightly

The number of people entered into intensive care or intensive care due to Covid-19 in Ile-de-France, which had risen last week after 4 weeks of decrease, from 223 new admissions the week of November 30 to 271 the week of December 7, goes down to 258. The peak was reached the week of November 2 with nearly 600 admissions.

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The total number of people in intensive care for Covid-19 stabilizes

The total number of patients in intensive care is also increasing slightly. As of December 20, 610 Covid-19 patients were in intensive care or intensive care in Ile-de-France compared to 607 patients the previous Sunday. The peak of the second wave was reached on November 12, with 1,138 patients.

In order to anticipate this second wave and increase the total number of intensive care places from 1,200 to 1,775 at the regional level, the other hospital services had deprogrammed up to 50% of their activity.

Since September 23, the total number of people in intensive care in Ile-de-France had exceeded that of the start of confinement which was 294 on March 18. As a reminder, the peak of the first wave was reached on April 8 with 2,668 patients in intensive care in Ile-de-France.

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Read also:
Ile-de-France: reconfinement instructions for use
Coronavirus in Val-de-Marne: progress report with Eric Véchard (ARS 94)
Val-de-Marne: how emergencies face the 2nd wave of Covid-19
Covid-19 in emergencies: the figures in Ile-de-France

11,722 people have died in Covid-19 hospital since March in Ile-de-France

The number of people who died from Covid-19 in hospital exceeded 10,000 in Ile-de-France the week of November 15. This Sunday, December 20, the number reached 11,722 people against 11,455 the previous Sunday, or 267 people in one week against 333 people the previous week.

(In the diagram below, the large number of patients who died in Essonne the week of September 14 corresponds to a catch-up in the transmission of files from one of the hospitals in this department).

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The peak in the number of people who died from the coronavirus was reached in mid-April, during the first wave. On April 7 alone, 276 people had died from Covid-19 in the region. In this second wave, the peak was observed on November 9 with 113 deaths.

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Attention, change of thermometer since December 8. Below are the explanations from Public Health France
“Since December 8, after checking the quality of the data reported, all the results of RT-PCR or Antigenic tests enter into the production of national and territorial epidemiological indicators (incidence rate, positivity rate and screening rate) useful for monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic. In addition, the epidemic is prolonged over time and screening capacities have increased, leading to an increasing frequency of people tested several times. Thus, an adjustment of the deduplication methods for the patients benefiting from repeated tests and therefore of the definition of the persons tested was necessary. Public Health France, in its epidemiological approach centered on patients, has therefore adapted its methods so that these indicators in particular best reflect the proportion of infected people among the population tested. These developments have no impact on the trends and interpretation of the dynamics of the epidemic, which remain the same. More precise data relating to the tests (incidence and positivity) are also published by Public Health France (SI-DEP data). ”
See detailed explanations on the new calculation methods

This change modifies the data previously established in the past weeks

It is important to note that “Before making this change effective, Public Health France recalculated from these new methods all the indicators (incidence rate, positivity, screening) produced since May 13, at each relevant territorial level (region, department, commune, IRIS). ”, indicates Public Health France.

Read also:
Please note, the data having been modified by the new calculation methods introduced on December 8, and our charts being systematically updated, the figures indicated during the barometers are likely to be slightly out of step with the charts.
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of December 7
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of November 30
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of November 16
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of November 9
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of November 2
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of October 26
Coronavirus barometer as of October 19
Coronavirus barometer in Ile-de-France: update as of October 12

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