The Robert Koch Institute is once again reporting rising corona numbers. What will happen to us this time in the cold season? One expert sees many unanswered questions.
Autumn is here and with it the next corona wave. Many people in Germany have already noticed that the number of respiratory infections is rising again. But what is behind the new cases? A look at the current developments.
New Corona variant dominant in Germany
For about four to five weeks, both the viral load in wastewater and the corona incidences estimated by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in Germany have been increasing. “An increase in SARS-CoV-2 activity continues in the population and in the outpatient sector,” says the current RKI weekly report.
According to experts, it can be assumed that the autumn wave of corona is starting now and that the number of cases will continue to rise. “There are indeed signs of a new wave, driven by the KP.3 variant,” says epidemiologist Prof. Markus Scholz t-online. This is now the eleventh corona variant to become dominant in Germany, says the expert. And: Corona continues to contribute to a significant burden of disease.
Dr. Markus Scholz (Source: University of Leipzig, Photographer: Christian Hüller)
Prof. Markus Scholz is an epidemiologist at the University of Leipzig and is researching the development of the pandemic.
According to Scholz, the rapid change in variants means that the characteristic seasonal pattern that we know from flu, for example, does not occur with corona. This means that there are sometimes several waves per year. “In total, we have counted twelve waves of infection since the beginning of the pandemic, which were more or less pronounced,” says the epidemiologist.
However, it is not yet possible to estimate how severe the current autumn wave will be. The last five waves have shown a comparable intensity in terms of critical cases (severe cases and hospitalizations).
When assessing the Corona situation, scientists primarily look at the critical cases. The reported infection numbers are significantly underestimated because hardly any testing is being done in the population anymore.
Queue outside a doctor’s office: Corona numbers are rising rapidly. (Source: Friedrich Stark/imago-images-bilder)
But what do we know about the sub-variant KP.3.1.1, which currently accounts for more than 70 percent of corona infections in Germany? Is it different from other Omicron offshoots or is it even more dangerous?
There are no definitive answers to this question yet. But one thing is certain: KP.3.1.1 is a descendant of the JN.1 line and is already prevalent in several countries. As scientists from Japan report in a new study, KP.3.1.1 could have a significant fitness advantage over its predecessors. “KP.3.1.1 has a significantly higher reproduction number than its predecessors KP.2, KP.2.3 and KP.3,” is their assessment in the journal “The Lancet”. This means that KP.3.1.1 is more contagious and more difficult for human antibodies to fight off.
According to Scholz, this fitness advantage simply means that the variant prevails. He says: “In principle, this has been the case with every variant combination that has prevailed in Germany in the past. So that is not unusual.” He says the danger potential of the variant is difficult to calculate so far: how likely severe infections are and how effective the existing immunization in the population is against the variant is not known. But these questions are currently important to clarify.
The coronavirus mutates frequently because it is an RNA virus that has small errors (mutations) in its genetic code each time it replicates. These mutations happen randomly, but some of them can give the virus advantages, such as greater transmissibility, better evasion from the immune system, or resistance to certain treatments such as vaccines and drugs.
The symptoms of KP.3.1.1 are reportedly similar to those of previous corona variants. Classic symptoms such as fever, cough, sore throat, headache, muscle pain, breathing problems and loss of smell and taste are evident.
Although the exact severity and effectiveness of the vaccines against KP.3.1.1 continue to be monitored and investigated, experts believe that the current vaccines continue to provide protection. An adapted Biontech vaccine has been available in Germany since mid-August 2024. According to the Standing Committee on Vaccination (Stiko), people aged 60 and over, people with pre-existing medical conditions or employees who work in the healthcare sector should be vaccinated with a booster. According to Stiko, the ideal time for vaccination is in the fall.
