Population in the East older due to migration, therefore more vulnerable
One reason given for the East-West difference is that after 1990 a disproportionately large number of young people with low mortality risks left these regions. A higher excess mortality resulting from such migration can be observed for Germany and Europe as a whole; in 2021, the focus of excess mortality shifted to the East.
“In the population that remained behind, the average age rose significantly and health behavior was negatively affected by the unfavorable working conditions there,” said co-author Michael Mühlichen. High average age and the comparatively widespread prevalence of smoking, alcohol abuse, lack of physical exercise and unhealthy diet contribute significantly to the increased proportion of vulnerable people. In Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Hungary, and parts of Poland and the Czech Republic, life expectancy was more than 2.5 years below the statistically expected value.
But many Western European regions also showed higher excess mortality in 2021 than in the previous year. “While 362 regions recorded significant excess mortality in the first year of the pandemic, the figure was as high as 440 in the following year,” reported co-author Pavel Grigoriev.
In 2020, more people died in Italy and fewer in Germany
Looking at regions in Italy and Spain where the first major Covid-19 outbreaks occurred in 2020, Mühlichen said: “At its peak, life expectancy was more than two and a half years below the expected value.” For the year, the researchers registered a high excess mortality in northern Italy, southern Switzerland, central Spain and Poland.
In parts of northern and western Germany, Denmark, western and southern France, Norway and Sweden, however, they recorded a lower mortality rate. The researchers referred to the long-term development of life expectancy before 2020. Based on this, values for 2020 and 2021 were forecast. The deviation from the actually measured values resulted in the excess or under-mortality in the regions.
Due to the extensive data research and processing as well as the subsequent testing procedures, the researchers have only now been able to present their basic work. The Federal Institute wrote this together with the French Institute for Demographic Studies and published it in the journal “Nature Communications”.
