A column was recently published in The Lancet where a number of researchers believe that the elimination strategy, or a so-called zero covid strategy, may no longer be sustainable. This is due to the social and economic consequences that the strategy entails.
The article was written by lead author Chuan De Foo at the National University of Singapore and a number of other researchers, including Regional Director Nima Asgari of the World Health Organization (WHO).
In the article, the researchers review the situation in Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Singapore, who have all followed the elimination strategy, and suggest how to move away from it in four steps:
- Have a short-term and flexible approach to infection control measures.
- Vaccinate as much as possible.
- Targeted and satisfactory measures to protect the business community and vulnerable groups against the consequences of the measures.
- Streamline and shift the responsibility for monitoring the infection situation, among other things by giving the population greater responsibility for self-testing and a greater understanding of when it is necessary to isolate themselves.
Professor emeritus in social medicine, Steinar Westin, at NTNU tells Dagbladet that the strategy simply no longer works.
The countries that followed the zero covid strategy, such as New Zealand and Taiwan, impressed at the start of the pandemic. These countries had strict control over import infection, and had almost no infection for a long time, says Westin to Dagbladet and continues:
– What has changed the picture is the hyper-infectious delta variant. Once you have got the delta variant into the country, you obviously can not keep the spread of infection in check. This is why New Zealand is now moving away from this strategy, simply because it no longer works.
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Probably problems
Assistant Director of Health Espen Rostrup Nakstad says that the countries that went for an elimination strategy have probably experienced major problems.
Countries that in the first year of the pandemic followed a so-called zero covid strategy where they tried to eliminate the virus completely from society in the absence of vaccine, largely succeeded in maintaining a normal social life throughout 2020. Nevertheless, both Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Singapore are quite big problems, especially related to their internationally oriented business community throughout this period, Nakstad tells Dagbladet and continues:
– After vaccines became available at New Year’s times, the strategy has been less and less and several of the countries have probably struggled to find the best time to move to a more normalized entry system without equally strict quarantine rules. It has also taken a very long time to get the vaccination started, including in Australia, which has extended the phase of closure measures after the infection began to spread in society in 2021.
ASSISTANT HEALTH DIRECTOR: Espen Rostrup Nakstad at the Norwegian Directorate of Health. Photo: Ali Zare / NTB
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Vaccination
Westin also highlights vaccine coverage in countries that have followed some form of elimination strategy.
– What has been a bit problematic with the countries that have followed the zero covid strategy, is that several of them have been out later with the vaccination. Now that the delta variant is overriding the strategy, it is important that the countries throw themselves around and vaccinate the population better, says Westin and continues:
– Many will probably say that the countries that have followed a zero covid strategy have had a successful handling of the covid-19 pandemic, all the time they can still boast of low death rates. They have handled the pandemic much better than the countries that had a more convenient approach, such as England, the United States and Brazil.
