Insights from the Corona period
Updated on 01.08.2024, 08:43
Many people have died during the pandemic, but excess mortality was not everywhere. © Getty Images/Ladanifer
A recent study published by the Federal Institute for Population Research shows the excess mortality in various European countries. It was found that this varies greatly from region to region. There can even be deviations within a country – and in parts of Germany there was even a lower mortality rate.
During the corona pandemic, the so-called excess mortality According to a study There are large regional differences within Europe. This is the result of a data analysis by the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB) and the French Institute for Demographic Studies, which was published in Wiesbaden on Wednesday. To do this, the researchers compared the life expectancy actually expected for 2020 and 2021 based on long-term developments with the life expectancy actually measured in 569 European regions.
What is excess mortality?
- Excess mortality occurs when significantly more people die than normal in a certain period of time. To determine the death rate in a region, the average number of deaths per day over several years is calculated. If there is an outlier in the form of additional deaths over a period of several weeks, this is an indicator of a crisis.
- Excess mortality is therefore an indicator of how many people have died, for example, from an epidemic.
In parts of Germany there was even a drop in mortality during the pandemic
According to BiB, in the first year of the pandemic in 2020, a significant excess mortality was observed, especially in northern Italy, southern Switzerland, central Spain and Poland – in other words, life expectancy fell.
In parts of northern and western Germany, Denmark, western and southern France, Norway and Sweden, however, a lower mortality rate was recorded during the same period – that is, fewer people died than the normal average.
In contrast, excess mortality was recorded in Thuringia, southern and eastern Saxony, and in the south of Saxony-Anhalt and Brandenburg, which, according to the study’s results, was between one and a half and two years. With the exception of some Bavarian regions, it was less than one year in the old federal states.
Regional differences within a country were also identified
In Italy, for example, there were very strong regional differences within the country: while in the northern Italian provinces of Bergamo and Cremona, life expectancy was around four years below the expected value as a result of excess mortality in the first year of the pandemic, in some southern Italian provinces at the same time no increased mortality was measurable.
The studies showed that the pandemic initially affected mainly urban areas and then spread from there to less connected areas. “These findings help to better understand excess mortality during the pandemic and to incorporate this into preventive measures for future pandemics,” said co-author Pavel Grigoriev, head of the Mortality Research Group at BiB, explaining the practical benefits of the study.
Second year of pandemic changed the numbers
According to the study, in the second year of the pandemic, 2021, excess mortality shifted to Eastern Europe. In Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Hungary, and parts of Poland and the Czech Republic, life expectancy was more than two and a half years below the statistically expected value.
Compared to Eastern Europe, many Western European regions showed lower excess mortality in 2021. Within Germany, there was a clear east-west divide in 2021. For example, excess mortality was significantly higher in many eastern German states than in most western German states.
Method of study
- The extent of the excess and under-mortality determined depends on the comparison with life expectancy during the corona pandemic in 2020 and 2021. For the study, the long-term development of life expectancy in each region examined before 2020 was included.
- On this basis, the most likely values for life expectancy in 2020 and 2021 were “forecast” using a statistical estimation procedure. The deviation of these expected values from the actual values results in the excess or under-mortality in the respective region.
Where do the differences come from?
“The reasons for the large regional differences are complex and can be attributed, among other things, to the different proportion of vulnerable people (on the population, editor’s note.),” explained co-author Michael Mühlichen from BiB. “The extent to which relevant pre-existing conditions are regionally widespread depends on the age structure and risk behavior of the population, which in turn are influenced by socioeconomic conditions.” (AFP/mak)
Sources used
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