Corona increased excess mortality
Pandemic significantly reduced life expectancy in East Germany
31.07.2024, 16:39
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The corona pandemic hit the entire world, but did not leave its mark everywhere in the same way. Researchers analyzed excess mortality in 25 European countries and came to different conclusions. Germany will also see a significant drop in life expectancy by 2021 at the latest.
According to a study, there have been large regional differences in so-called excess mortality within Europe during the Corona pandemic. This is the result of a data analysis by the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB) and the French Institute for Demographic Studies, which was carried out in Wiesbaden has been publishedTo do this, the researchers compared the life expectancy actually expected for 2020 and 2021 based on long-term developments with the actually measured life expectancy in 569 European regions.
According to the BIB, in the first year of the pandemic in 2020, a significant excess mortality was observed, particularly in northern Italy, southern Switzerland, central Spain and Poland – in other words, life expectancy fell. In parts of northern and western Germany, Denmark, western and southern France, Norway and Sweden, on the other hand, a lower mortality rate was recorded.
In Italy, for example, there were very strong regional differences within the country: while in the northern Italian provinces of Bergamo and Cremona, life expectancy was around four years below the expected value as a result of excess mortality in the first year of the pandemic, in some southern Italian provinces at the same time no increased mortality was measurable.
2021: Excess mortality in Eastern Europe is growing
According to the study, in the second year of the pandemic, 2021, excess mortality shifted to Eastern Europe. In Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Hungary, and parts of Poland and the Czech Republic, life expectancy was more than two and a half years below the statistically expected value. In some Slovakian regions, life expectancy even fell by four years, similar to what happened at the beginning of the pandemic in Bergamo and Cremona.
Compared to Eastern Europe, many Western European regions showed lower excess mortality in 2021. Within Germany, there was a clear east-west divide in 2021. For example, excess mortality was significantly higher in many eastern German states than in most western German states.
In 2020, both East and West German regions were at the top of the decline in life expectancy (filter by Germany in the graphic) – for example Upper Lusatia-Lower Silesia, Southern Saxony and Havelland-Fläming (east) and Landshut, Osnabrück and Donau-Iller (west). In 2021, there is no longer any region in Western Germany among the ten regions with the highest excess mortality. And while Upper Lusatia-Lower Silesia (peak in 2020) lost just 0.95 years in average life expectancy, in the Southern Saxony region (peak in 2021) it was already 1.95 years on average. So there was not only a clear regional shift, but the effects on life expectancy were much more serious in 2021 than in 2020.
Special cases Paderborn and East Frisia
Interestingly, there are only two regions in Germany where life expectancy increased in both 2020 and 2021: Paderborn and East Frisia. These two regions are the only ones in Germany where life expectancy increased in 2021; in all other regions in the country, however, it fell.
“The reasons for the large regional differences are complex and can be traced back, among other things, to the different proportion of vulnerable people,” explained co-author Michael Mühlichen from BiB. “The extent to which relevant pre-existing conditions are regionally widespread depends on the age structure and risk behavior of the population, which in turn are influenced by socioeconomic conditions.”
In addition to the high average age, many eastern German regions are also experiencing poorer economic development. On average, more people in these regions smoke and drink more alcohol. In addition, people there exercise less and eat worse on average, the study says.
Excess mortality was examined for the years 2020 and 2021 in a total of 569 regions in 25 European countries. The researchers referred to the long-term development of life expectancy before 2020 – on this basis, values for 2020 and 2021 were forecast.
