Dresden. First the good news: Saxon industry remains on the road to recovery. The construction industry is also supporting the economic situation in Saxony, and wholesalers are even assessing their situation better than before Corona.
Twelve percent of Saxon companies are not affected by the economic crisis, and every tenth company reports increased sales. These are the results of a business survey in which a good 2,100 member companies of the Saxon Chambers of Commerce and Industry (IHK) took part between mid-December and mid-January.
The Chemnitz Chamber of Commerce and Industry Managing Director Hans-Joachim Wunderlich reported on Thursday about a “roller coaster ride” in the Saxon economy. An upswing set in after the first lockdown, but the setback came with the second corona wave. Two percent of the companies surveyed have therefore given up their business.
Tension between traders and banks
According to their own statements, the chamber bosses “do not initially expect” a widespread bankruptcy wave in Saxony. This can still be prevented if the announced bridging aid from the state arrives soon. Otherwise, some threaten to run out of money.
The relationships between dealers and financial institutions got increasingly “in tension”, said the Dresden Chamber of Industry and Commerce managing director Detlef Hamann. Some banks are increasingly critical if loans should be extended again.
The Saxony Trade Association had also reported on this. Wunderlich said, however, that regional financial institutions in particular “make an effort to keep customers alive”.
Jobs: reduction and expansion at the same time
Six percent of the companies surveyed in Saxony ticked the box that their financial situation was marked by the threat of bankruptcy. This share is even higher, at seven to eight percent, in retail, transport and service providers. Every fifth company feels “liquidity bottlenecks”, which is in both the Saxon and nationwide Survey of the chambers.
Wunderlich expects that some older business owners will retire earlier than planned and close their businesses without going bankrupt. 30 percent of companies are currently making losses, a year ago it was ten percent.
Unemployment in Saxony has risen, but business representatives expect stable employment overall in the coming months. Short-time working allowance is used by 36 percent of the companies surveyed. 18 percent ticked that they would reduce their workforce, but 16 percent intend to hire new staff.
Skilled labor shortages can be felt in construction and in information technology. The survey shows that issues such as the shortage of skilled workers, labor costs and energy prices have lost importance. But according to Wunderlich, that can change again quickly.
Companies invest less
When it comes to the outlook, the Saxon entrepreneurs give worse marks than when assessing the situation. Drug stores and grocery stores are expecting business to continue growing. But Corona paralyzes fashion and toy retailers as well as service providers who depend on contacts.
Every fourth company in Saxony says it is reducing its investments, and this is what the construction industry now fears from the state. Less money is expected to be spent on road and bridge construction in the next few years, which is why the construction companies are also more skeptical. Their capacities are still 84 percent full, hardly less than a year ago. The chambers are calling on the state to focus more on investment and innovation in budget planning.
Is 35 Incidence The New 50?
The latest decisions by the federal and state governments to extend the lockdown have disappointed Dresden’s managing director Hamann. He still lacks “a timetable” from the Corona crisis. A stricter incidence value now apparently applies to possible easing: “35 are now the new 50”, thus extending the closing time for restaurants and the travel industry.
Hamann no longer expects that there will be “a normal gastronomy and tourism business” before summer. His Leipzig colleague Thomas Hofmann continues to hope for “at least limited operations after Easter”. According to Hamann, some employees from the catering industry will try to do other work and then be absent.
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