Corona incidence: why are the numbers rising again?

Status: 07.03.2022 6:31 p.m

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The corona numbers have been rising again for a few days. The nationwide seven-day incidence is now 1259.2 – the lowest level last week was 1171.9. There are several reasons for this development.

What many experts have warned about seems to be coming true: the corona pandemic is not over. After a decline, nationwide seven-day incidence increased for the fifth consecutive day. The Robert Koch Institute RKI gave the value of new infections per 100,000 inhabitants and week at 1259.2.

For comparison: the previous day the value was 1231.1, a week ago it was 1238.2 – the lowest level last week was 1171.9. The health authorities in Germany reported 78,428 new infections within one day. A week ago it was 62,349.

Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) was concerned about this development, for which there are likely to be several reasons.

Omikron Subtype BA.2

It will continue to be felt that BA.2 is even more contagious than the original Omicron variant, Lauterbach said. The proportion of BA.2 infections has been increasing since the beginning of the year. The sub-variant should already be predominant in this country. According to the latest available figures from the RKI, she had already taken care of 38 percent of the cases in a sample in the week up to February 20.

With a view to the rate of spread of BA.2, modelers led by Kai Nagel from the TU Berlin announced around two weeks ago that the number of infections could be expected to increase again from the end of February. Experts also considered a longer plateau possible. So far, the majority of the omicron wave in Germany has been attributed to sub-variant BA.1.

increases in older people

The previous omicron wave hit younger age groups in particular. However, the incidence in children and adolescents up to the age of 14 is currently falling significantly. However, the RKI shows growth in the older groups. The RKI had announced that the apex of the wave was still to come for people over 65.

Carnival in North Rhine-Westphalia

In some cities there could be another reason for the trend: According to the Ministry of Health in North Rhine-Westphalia, the sharp increase in corona infections in Cologne suggests a connection with the carnival. However, that cannot be proven with certainty.

After a downward trend in new infections had been observed in North Rhine-Westphalia since the beginning and middle of February, the number of cases has increased again since the end of last week. Currently, this affects the 20- to 29-year-olds in particular. Compared to other major cities in North Rhine-Westphalia, this development can be observed particularly in Cologne, but also in Düsseldorf.

Various loosening

Because of the time that elapses between infection, onset of symptoms, test and case report to the RKI, the omission of further corona measures from last Friday cannot yet be directly reflected in the numbers.

In the catering and hotel industry, for example, the 3G rule now applies again, according to which non-vaccinated people with a negative test are also allowed to eat in the restaurant. The bioinformatician Lars Kaderali from the Federal Government’s Expert Council said recently on the NDR that this group without protection against a severe course would be more closely involved in the infection process due to these increasing contacts.

However, there have been various relaxations in some federal states in the past few weeks. In Berlin, for example, people who were not vaccinated were able to shop in all shops or visit museums again. In several federal states, certain contact restrictions for vaccinated and recovered people were dropped.

opening mood

How people behave in the face of easing, i.e. whether they take advantage of possible offers, is crucial for the modelers around Kai Nagel. If they have as many leisure activities as before the pandemic, modeling suggested a further increase in the number of infections, according to a recent report by the group.

How mobility is currently developing – estimates could be possible next week, said Nagel.

Reduced burden on hospitals

The RKI attributes the fact that the burden on hospitals has so far remained significantly lower than in previous waves, despite the very high case numbers in the Omikron wave, to the very good effectiveness of the vaccination against severe courses and to the generally lower disease severity of Omikron.

So far, at least 75.6 percent of the population (at least 62.9 million people) have received a basic vaccination, which usually requires two shots. At least 57.4 percent (47.7 million) also received a booster shot.