A Guide to the Covid-19 Daily Stats. With a few bright spots, such as a reproduction number that drops below 1 for the first time in two months.
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The classic three-stage corona missile (infections, hospitalizations, deaths) remains grim, but in contrast to the lightning-fast advance in October, it shows some encouraging signs. Between October 29 and November 4, according to the Numbers of Sciensano in Belgium infected an average of 10,512 people per day hit with the corona virus. That is a decrease of 35 percent from the previous seven-day period.
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Infections pass through it more selective testing however a less accurate picture than before. More unambiguously positive: the increase in hospital admissions – which follow with a delay in the number of infections – has stopped: on average 618 per day, 5 percent less.
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Deaths – which in turn respond with a delay to hospital admissions – remain very high at an average of 173 per day (+ 66%).
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Important: the reproduction number (R) has dropped below 1 for the first time since the beginning of September: 100 infected people now infect an average of 99 others. An R below 1 is crucial to contain the virus.
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From the end of September to the end of October, the contamination figures in our country rose from one record to another. The daily figures have only declined slightly for a few days. In any case, the situation is different from the spring. We dive into the numbers with you.
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Virus circulating strongly again
We are testing much more than in the spring. The limited testing capacity – in April the number of tests fluctuated between 5,000 and 10,000 per day – was mainly for those who showed clear symptoms. Today we test much more broadly, so it has recently become no longer tested everyone because the labs can no longer follow.
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The past week were an average of 49,000 tests per day declined, well below the peak of about 70,000 in October before it was decided to test more selectively. The virus circulates much more strongly than in the summer. We can deduce this from the proportion of positive tests, the so-called positivity ratio.
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A high positivity ratio – the World Health Organization (WHO) set a threshold of 5 percent in May – suggests many undiscovered cases and a too rapid spread of the virus. A low ratio indicates sufficient testing and possibly slower spread.
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The percentage of positive tests in Belgium has recently increased rapidly. From 2 percent in early September to an average of 26 percent today. But there are major regional differences. In the province of Liège In recent days, 40 percent of the tests have been positive, in West and East Flanders and Limburg about 15 percent. And that while all provinces and the Brussels Region test roughly at a comparable level.
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Sciensano uses a flashing light system, whereby the light switches to orange if more than 20 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants have been reported in a municipality in the past seven days. If the number of new infections then increases for seven consecutive days, the light turns red. This is now the case almost everywhere, especially in Brussels and Wallonia:
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The virus has gained a foothold in Belgium this spring, among others by returning skiers. Back then, people in their forties and fifties in particular tested positive. After that, the coronavirus mainly affected people over 60, who ended up in hospital en masse. From the summer onwards, the virus circulated in people younger than 40. Today the scale leans more towards the more vulnerable group of elderly, which immediately explains the rapidly rising death toll.
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Pressure on care remains high, but is stabilizing
End there again more people in the hospital due to the effects of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus is caused. On average over the last seven days, this is now 618 (-5%). The increase in the influx has now stopped, one of the ‘bright spots‘that virologist Steven Van Gucht discovers.
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So bright spots, but the overall picture remains dark. 6,893 patients have now been hospitalized, a decrease from Tuesday’s record (7,487). The peak of the first wave, 5,715 patients, was dated April 6. 1,464 patients are treated in intensive care. That is a record, but the advance has also come to a halt here.
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Yet here too the situation cannot simply be compared with the first wave. Now hospitals are taking in covid patients much faster than in March and April, when hospital beds filled at a very high rate. With the current increase however, a surprise threatens over the next few weeks, which is why the government will be running Friday night a strict lockdown passed.
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In the leisurely summer months, a federal spreading plan was developed to safeguard regular care as much as possible during new corona outbreaks. This means that hospitals keep a certain percentage of their beds and their places in intensive care free for covid. In phase 0, this concerns 15 percent of the beds in intensive care units and four times that in the nursing ward. In subsequent phases, each hospital reserves 25 percent (phase 1a), 50 percent (phase 2a) and 60 percent (phase 2b) of the beds in intensive care units.
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Intensive care under more pressure
So become today more than 1,400 people in intensive care treated. That is more than two-thirds of the maximum 2,000 beds that are provided for corona patients. They are spread all over the country. The distribution provides an accurate picture of the pressure on hospitals. With the caveat that there are hospital networks that work together across the provincial borders, this creates a slight distortion.
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The figures show major regional differences. The situation is particularly dire in the Brussels Region and the provinces of Liège and Hainaut.
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12,907 victims
During the past seven days, an average of 173 people died from the disease every day, which is the toll since the start of the pandemic to 12,907.
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Overall, we find that Covid-19 is more deadly to old people. More than half of the deceased are over 85s.
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Not all deaths end up in the corona statistics. In order to know the real impact of the deadly coronavirus in Belgium and to be able to compare it with that in other countries, excess mortality is a much more correct indicator. That is the number of extra deaths compared to the average of the previous years.
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During the first week of April, at the height of the first wave, more than twice as many people died than in previous years. Even now it is expected that more people than usual will die. Here too: the greatest toll is on the over-85s, the age group where more people have died than expected since spring. Conversely, in the youngest group up to the age of 24, fewer people die almost consistently this year than expected, partly because there are fewer road accidents.
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