Scientists at the University Medical Center Greifswald warn of the loosening of the lockdown in January. This would lead to increasing numbers of infections and an overload of the health system in March.
The researchers led by the Greifswald bioinformatician Lars Kaderali have developed a computer model with which they can derive forecasts on the course of the corona infection numbers. Using a slightly graduated R-value (reproduction value), they have calculated different scenarios with their model, as stated in a statement published on Sunday. In particular, they examined the effects of loosening the currently applicable Corona rules or a hard lockdown extended beyond January 10th.
According to the model, the incidence value was around 100 for a long time
The Greifswald researchers are currently assuming a state-wide incidence value of around 110 and an R value in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania of 0.9. This means that 100 infected people would currently infect 90 more people. Under these conditions and with the contact restrictions still in effect, the bioinformaticians are predicting an incidence value of 100 in the country even for the end of January, despite the gradually falling number of new infections. Only in March would this fall below the target of 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants within seven days.
The intensive care beds have become scarce and there are staff shortages, according to the clinic. Planned operations are now postponed. more
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Researchers assume more intensive care patients
Even this comparatively moderate development of the infection rate would have significant consequences in the hospitals, according to Kaderali, who is also advising the state government in the corona pandemic. At the end of January, 90-100 intensive care patients and thus even tighter capacities can be expected. According to the State Office for Health and Social Affairs (LAGuS), 77 patients are currently being treated in intensive care units in the state. Even in a more optimistic scenario with an R-value of 0.8, the seven-day incidence would not fall below 50 until mid-February if lockdown measures were continued. With an R value of 1, however, the seven-day incidence would still be over 100 in mid-February, according to the scientists.
In the worst case, there is a risk of overloading the health system
In view of their forecasts, the researchers are vehemently warning against the relaxation of the corona protective measures in January. The consequence would be a rapid increase in the number of infections. “In this case, the model predicts a 7-day incidence of over 500 as early as mid / end of February in MV, at the beginning of March the hospital capacities in the country would be burdened with over 300 intensive care patients and the health system would be overloaded in March,” says it in the statement.
Researcher: Corona is no longer an issue in autumn
According to Kaderali, the corona vaccinations and seasonal fluctuations in infection are already taken into account in the models. He does not expect the vaccinations to have a noticeable effect until the end of March at the earliest. “We will have to live with contact reduction measures and serious restrictions until spring,” said the director of the Institute for Bioinformatics. Only then does the picture gradually lighten. According to Kaderali, there is definitely reason to hope for a “normal” summer – “and in autumn Corona should no longer be an issue”. On Tuesday (January 5), the Prime Ministers of the federal states want to discuss how to proceed with the corona pandemic in a video conference with Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU).
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The intensive care beds have become scarce and there are staff shortages, according to the clinic. Planned operations are now postponed. more
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Corona: You should know that
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Service
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Ministries, authorities and associations in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania have switched citizen phones and hotlines for questions about the corona virus. Here is an overview. more
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This topic in the program:
NDR 1 Radio MV | The news | 03/01/2021 | 19:30 o’clock
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