The experts of the Covid forecast consortium continue to expect a downward trend in the number of infections for the coming week. However, the development of the case is characterized by diametrically opposed dynamics. On the one hand there is the seasonal effect, on the other hand the immune protection acquired through infection or vaccination continues to decrease. In the medium term, the experts expect that falling protection will dominate.
The timing and strength of this effect cannot be precisely quantified at this time, according to the current forecast. According to the experts, both slight increases and slight declines are possible in the forecast for the coming week. The number of Covid 19 patients in hospitals is also falling slightly.
New variants are increasing
The virus variants BA.4/BA.5 and BA.2.12. are now classified as variants of concern by the ECDC and are already or are about to become dominant in some regions of the world. According to international observation data, these variants should have growth advantages over their predecessors. The proportion of these variants is also increasing in Austria and is likely to be around eight percent in Vienna, for example, according to the forecast.
A seven-day incidence in the range of 130 to 210 cases per 100,000 inhabitants is now expected for next Wednesday, with an average of 160 given. The lowest incidence is expected in Vorarlberg (81 to 130) and the highest incidence in Vienna (200 to 330). The experts expect that there will be between 1,661 and 2,734 new infections next Wednesday, the average is 2,072.
A drop to 309 infected people is expected in the normal wards by June 8th, and on Wednesday 505 people who tested positive still needed hospital care. Experts estimate that the number of Covid intensive care patients should fall from 44 today to 33 within the next two weeks. Due to the currently very low surface numbers, usual weekday-related fluctuations could lead to high relative deviations, but this was emphasized.
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