The month of January has been marked by a heat wave in South America, which has suffered record temperatures and devastating fires in Colombia and Chile, with more than 130 deaths in the Valparaíso region.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) indicated that from February 2023 to January 2024 an average temperature was recorded 1.52ºC higher than that of the period 1850-1900, something that scientists call a “warning to humanity.”
“This does not mean that we have surpassed the +1.5ºC barrier set in Paris” in 2015, in an agreement to try to contain global warming and its consequences, said Richard Betts, director of studies on climate impacts at the national office. of British meteorology.
To do this, this limit would have to be exceeded stably for several decades. “However, this is yet another reminder of the profound changes we have already brought to our global climate and to which we must now adapt,” he added.
– «Brutal warning»
“This is a brutal warning about the urgency of action to limit climate change,” said Brian Hoskins, director of the Grantham Institute on Climate Change at Imperial College London.
“It is a very important and disastrous signal,” said Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “A warning to tell humanity that we are approaching the 1.5ºC limit faster than expected,” he added.
The current climate is already around 1.2ºC above the average between 1850-1900. At the current rate of emissions, UN experts predict that there is a 50% probability of reaching the 1.5ºC threshold in the five-year period 2030-2035.
After a record-breaking 2023, the new year began on the same path. With an average temperature of 13.14 ºC, 2024 had the warmest January since records began.
The average is 0.12 ºC compared to the previous record of January 2020 and 0.70 ºC above what is usual in the period 1991-2020. Compared to the pre-industrial era, it was 1.66ºC warmer.
In addition, January is the eighth consecutive month in which a historical heat record is broken for each of those months, notes Copernicus.
The heat has not been limited only to South America. Beyond some episodes of cold and
significant rainfall in some parts of the globe, the boreal winter has been especially mild in the south of France, Spain or parts of the United States, Canada, Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
– 2024 worse than 2023?
The ocean surface is also overheating, with a new record average temperature in January of 20.97ºC.
It is the second highest value in records, only 0.01 ºC below the record in August 2023.
The heat is expected to continue beyond January 31 despite the fact that the El Niño climate phenomenon is beginning to subside and should lead to a drop in sea temperatures.
The year 2024 “begins with a new record month,” lamented Samantha Burgess, deputy head of the Copernicus climate change service.
“A rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is the only way to slow the rise in global temperatures,” he added.
In mid-January, the World Meteorological Organization and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States warned that 2024 could easily break the previous year’s heat record.
According to NOAA, there is a 33% chance that 2024 will exceed this historical maximum and a 99% chance that it will be among the five warmest years on record.
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