2023-12-14 12:53 United News Network 24 Hours Around the Corner Photo/Associated Press
【2023. 12. 14 Global】
Out-of-reach 1.5°C: Is the COP28 resolution to phase out the use of fossil fuels enough to stop global warming?
“The COP28 agreement phased out fossil fuels, but is it too late to control global warming?” The COP28 conference ended on December 13. The 198 participating countries reached an agreement to “no longer use fossil fuels.” The result of this agreement symbolizes the determination of various countries to end the oil era. COP28 Chairman Sultan al-Jaber praised the historic significance of the agreement, but still pointed out that the focus is on implementation; the United Nations also pointed out that this is the biggest step the world has taken on climate issues since the 2015 Paris Agreement. But will the new agreement help meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels? Not optimistic, I’m afraid.
After two weeks of back-and-forth negotiations, the COP28 conference was extended for one day and finally concluded in Dubai on the 13th. During the negotiations, OPEC countries strongly opposed whether the draft agreement would “phase out fossil fuels” and stated that there was no need to avoid specific fuels. The outside world is worried that the conference will fall into a stalemate. Since OPEC countries control nearly 80% of the world’s discovered oil reserves and about one-third of current global oil production, including the United Arab Emirates, the host country of COP28, these OPEC countries are highly dependent on fossil fuel revenue.
The small island countries that have been hardest hit by climate change have clearly supported the phasing out of fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas, and coal, and have received support from major Western oil-producing countries such as the United States, Canada, and Norway, as well as the European Union.
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COP28 Chairman Sultan al-Jaber praised the historic significance of the agreement. picture/…
The agreement that was finally passed removed the word “phasing out fossil fuels” and replaced it with the more neutral word “transitioning”; although the measures were not tough enough, they violated the requirements of Europe, the United States and small island countries. expectations, but it can still be said to have reached a historic consensus – after all, getting nearly 200 countries to unanimously agree not to use fossil fuels in the future is a goal that has not been achieved in decades of international climate negotiations, as the Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs Espen Barth Eide said:
“This is the first time the world has reached such a clear agreement on the need to transition away from fossil fuels.”
COP28 Chairman Jaber loudly praised the historic significance of this agreement, but still emphasized that the key to the true success of the agreement still lies in its implementation. He said:
“We must take the necessary steps to turn the agreement into real action.”
Anne Rasmussen, chief negotiator of the Alliance of Small Island States, criticized the agreement for not showing strong determination, but did not formally oppose it. She pointed out in her speech at the COP28 conference:
“We have made incremental progress compared to the past, but what we really need is a decisive change in our actions.”
The agreement also includes an assessment that global carbon emissions will peak before 2025 and a commitment to phase out “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.” The agreement states that “in a just, orderly and equitable manner, the energy system will Moving away from fossil fuels… to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, consistent with the science.”
In developed countries such as Europe and the United States, their national policies have already begun to move in the direction of achieving net zero by 2050. For example, the European Union has embarked on a trial implementation of the “Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism” (CBAM) in October 2023, and the United States has also launched the “Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism” (CBAM) under the Biden administration. Under the guidance of the Inflation Reduction Act, heavy investment was made in the development of the electric vehicle industry; coal-fired power plants in the West began to retire, and the global capacity of renewable energy installations also reached new highs.The passage of the COP28 agreement now calls on governments to accelerate the realization of climate goals, especially to triple global renewable energy production and energy efficiency in 2030, reduce the use of coal, and accelerate developmentcarbon capture(CCS) technology to tackle hard-to-decarbonize sectors.
Photo/Associated Press
OPEC countries, including the United Arab Emirates, have advocated the role of carbon capture and storage technology in the agreement, but this technology is still expensive and has not been applied on a large scale, so many critics are skeptical.
However, although the agreement has achieved historic progress, both the BBC and the Financial Times are skeptical about whether it can really achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement of “limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” Pessimistic; “BBC” pointed out that the reason why the COP28 agreement finally adopted soft words, in addition to the influence of OPEC countries, the key is the attitude of developing countries, such as Nigeria, Uganda, Colombia and other countries, which said they still need Fossil fuel revenues are used to pay for the transition costs of the energy transition process. Colombia specifically pointed out that abandoning fossil fuels has lowered its national credit rating, causing Colombia to pay more for international loans on the road to greening.
There is also the Central American country Barbados that is experiencing economic difficulties. Avinash Persaud, Barbados’ special climate envoy, pointed out that if countries do not have strong trade, investment and finance to provide sufficient financial flows to achieve ex-post goals, any failure will Promises to use fossil fuels again are meaningless. Although the COP28 agreement emphasized the importance of organizations such as the World Bank, called for significantly expanding the scale of climate finance, and supported the acceleration of the creation of new financing sources (on the opening day of COP28, the conference committed 420 million climate change funds), but At the actual implementation level of financing, I am afraid that it will not be until COP29 to further discuss how to pay for the net zero path of developing countries.
China, the largest carbon emitter in the world today, adheres to a long-term attitude and pushes the responsibility for net zero to developed countries, saying that industrialization should take the lead. After the adoption of the COP28 agreement, Zhao Yingmin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Environment of China, said: “Developed countries We have an unshirkable historical responsibility for climate change.”
Developing countries’ attitudes towards carbon emissions and possible implementation difficulties are a major concern for the COP28 agreement. In addition, the agreement itself still recognizes “transitional fuels”, and the United Nations continues to use natural gas on the grounds of “transitional”.
Apart from the economic and political aspects, looking at the actual data on global warming, in order to achieve the goal of limiting temperature rise to within 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 43% in 2030 compared with 2019. However, this goal is At present, it seems that it is still out of reach – carbon emissions in 2023 will not decrease but increase by about 2%.
Photo/AP United Nations in the past 24 hours
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2023-12-14 04:53:47
