WASHINGTON — Control of Congress is at stake this Tuesday, with extremely close races for the House of Representatives and Senate that will determine which party maintains the majority and the power to advance or block a president’s agenda, or whether the White House faces a Capitol divided.
These key votes are being held at the same time as the first presidential election since the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, but also in unexpected corners of the country after one of the most chaotic parliamentary courses of the modern era.
In the end, only a handful of seats, or even just one, could tip the balance in either chamber.
The economy, border security, reproductive rights and even the future of American democracy itself have shaped the debate.
In the Senate, where Democrats now hold a slim 51-49 majority, an early boost is expected for Republicans in West Virginia. The retirement of independent Sen. Joe Manchin creates an opportunity that Republican Jim Justice, the state’s current governor, is likely to seize. A victory there would leave the chamber in a tie, 50-50, as Republicans try to take control.
The main House races center on New York and California, where, in a politically unusual turn, Democrats are trying to take back some of the 10 or so seats Republicans gained in surprising gains with star lawmakers who helped lead the party to power.
Other House races are scattered across the country, an indication of how much the race has narrowed, with only a couple dozen seats actually at risk of changing hands. Some of the most contested are in Maine, a Democratic-leaning district in Omaha, Nebraska, and in Alaska.
Vote counting in some races could extend well beyond Tuesday.
“We have the House of Representatives within reach,” said House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, who could make history as the institution’s first black speaker if his party gains control, speaking to The Associated Press during a recent campaign day in Southern California.
But House Speaker Mike Johnson, moving closer to Trump, predicts that Republicans will maintain “and increase” their majority. Johnson took office after the ouster of Kevin McCarthy.
Capitol Hill can make or break the priorities of a new White House, giving Trump or Harris potential allies or adversaries in the House and Senate, or a divided Congress that could force a season of concessions or gridlock.
Congress can also play a role in maintaining the American tradition of peaceful transfer of presidential power. Four years ago, Trump sent his mob of supporters to “fight like hell” at the Capitol, and many Republicans in Congress voted to block the election of Joe Biden. Congress will be called upon again to certify the results of the presidential election in 2025.
What began as an unexciting race for control of Congress was instantly transformed once Harris took over from Biden at the top of the ticket, energizing Democrats with massive fundraising and volunteers that lawmakers They said it reminded them of the enthusiasm of the 2008 elections, in the Obama era.
Outside parties and groups have spent billions of dollars in the small disputed areas of both the 435-member House of Representatives and the 100-member Senate.
Democrats need to gain a handful of seats in the House to wrest control of the party from Republicans. In the Senate, the vice president casts the deciding vote in the event of a tie, which would leave control of that chamber in the hands of the winner of the White House.
Senate Republicans sought to boost their options and recruited wealthy newcomers to put Democratic incumbents on the defensive in nearly 10 states across the country.
In Ohio, Trump-backed Republican Bernie Moreno, a Cleveland businessman, is seeking to unseat a three-term Democratic senator, Sherrod Brown. Some $400 million have been spent on the campaign.
One of the most closely watched races for the upper house, in Montana, may be one of the last to be decided. Democrat Jon Tester, a farmer and popular three-term senator, is fighting the biggest fight of his political career against Trump-backed Tim Sheehy, a wealthy former member of the US Navy SEAL task force, who made disparaging comments about Native Americans, a key constituency in the western state.
And in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Republicans are relying on Trump as they try to unseat a trio of Democratic senators.
Outgoing Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell has focused his career on achieving and maintaining majority power, but Republicans are seeing other opportunities slip away.
In the southwestern states, combative Arizona Republican Kari Lake has struggled against Democrat Ruben Gallego in the seat opened by the retirement of Sen. Krysten Sinema. In Nevada, Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen appears to be holding out against newcomer Sam Brown.
Democrats stepped up their challenges to a pair of Republican senators: Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott in Florida, in states where reproductive rights have been a focus following the Supreme Court’s decision that overturned abortion access guarantees. Cruz is facing Democrat Colin Allred, a Dallas-area congressman, while Scott has invested $10 million of his own fortune in the race against Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a former House of Representatives lawmaker.
Congress has the opportunity to reach several historic milestones as it is transformed by the American electorate, and could become more representative of a diverse nation.
Not one, but possibly two black women could be headed to the Senate, which would be something never seen before in the United States.
Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware is the favorite in the Senate race against Republican Eric Hansen.
And in Maryland, Harris ally Angela Alsobrooks is in a tight race against the state’s popular former governor, Republican Larry Hogan.
Americans have elected two Black women, including Harris, as senators since the nation’s founding, but never at the same time.
House candidate Sarah McBride, a Delaware state lawmaker close to the Biden family, is poised to become the first openly transgender person in Congress.
The consequences of redistricting, as states redraw their electoral maps, are also changing the balance of power within the House of Representatives. Republicans appear on track to gain several seats from Democrats in North Carolina, and Democrats could pick up a second majority-Black seat in Alabama, a Republican-majority state.
House lawmakers face voters every two years, while senators serve longer terms of six years.
The two cameras could change hands, something possible but unusual.
Records show that if Democrats take the House and Republicans take the Senate, it would be the first time that the two chambers of Congress have flipped to opposing political parties.
