Continuing to mutate, how far can the coronavirus evolve?

It is clear that we are currently dealing with a virus that spreads more easily – perhaps twice as fast – than the version that emerged in Wuhan in late 2019.

The Alpha variant, first identified in Kent, England, represents a huge leap forward in its infectiousness. Now the Delta variant, first discovered in India, jumps even further.

This means that evolution is taking place.

So are we going to keep getting new variants that are getting harder and harder to overcome? Or is there a limit on how vicious corona virus can mutate?

It is important to remember the journey of this virus. It has jumped from a completely different species – its close relative in bats – to humans. It’s like starting a new job: you are competent, but immature. The first variant of the coronavirus was capable enough to start a pandemic, but now it’s learning by doing.

When viruses jump into humans, “very rarely are they already in perfect condition,” said Professor Wendy Barclay, a virologist from Imperial College London. “They settle first, and after that thrive.”

There are examples of several viruses, he said, from pandemic flu to Ebola, which jump to humans and then spread rapidly.

So how far can the coronavirus evolve?

The easiest way to compare the biological spread of a virus is with the reproduction number, or R. This is the average number of people a person can transmit who becomes infected with the virus if none of those people are immune and take infection-prevention measures.

For example, the number R 1 means that one infected person transmits the virus to one other person on average.

The coronavirus’ R figure was around 2.5 when the pandemic began in Wuhan and can be as high as 8.0 for the Delta variant, according to modeling experts at Imperial College.

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