Input 2020.12.17 18:10
“This time, Incheon Jung-gu, Yangju, it would be nice. Water will come in” (ID xol*****)
Paju, Gyeonggi and Cheonan-si, South Chungcheongnam-do, Southeast and Seobuk-gu, Gyeongnam Changwon Seongsan-gu, Ulsanjung-nam-gu, Busan 9 districts, Pohang Nam-gu, Gyeongbuk, and Daegu 9 districts and counties were newly designated as regulated areas. An article titled “Looking for the Next Rising Runner” came up.
In this article, comments were posted to predict where the uptrend will continue among regions that are not restricted by regulations. Among them, there was a comment saying, “I have to go to Jung-gu and Yangju, Incheon, which have been lifted from the regulated area this time.” Many people thought that the increase in house prices would continue while avoiding the designation and cancellation of regulated areas.
Real estate experts agreed that designating a regulated area would prevent the increase in house prices in the area in the short term, but that it was not a policy that would be effective in setting prices. The key is whether there are end users and whether housing is provided in those areas.
Experts predicted that even if it was designated as a mediation area, the price would continue to rise as the market with end-users would incur a buying tax. Side effects were also expected. This means that the situation in which house prices in some regions that have avoided the regulation designation will rise again while seeing the balloon effect. After all, following Seoul, it is now necessary to consider supply measures to local regions.
–
–
The prices of apartments in Paju, Cheonan, Seobuk-gu, Changwon, Uichang-gu, Seongsan-gu, and Ulsan Nam-gu, which were designated as target areas for adjustment, rose 4.18% to 8.67% by region for three months from the end of last August, and the possibility of designating a target area for adjustment is early. It has been mentioned. In order to designate an area subject to adjustment, the rate of increase in housing prices in the area must exceed 1.3 times the rate of increase in consumer prices over the last three months.
◇ Market with learning effect of tweezers regulation… “Like a balloon effect”
Some parts of the real estate market are already looking for non-regulated areas where the balloon effect will appear upon the news of the additional designation of regulated areas. This is because if the government enforced tweezers regulation targeting a specific area, there was a learning effect that house prices in border areas outside the regulation increased afterwards.
In the real estate market in the Chungcheong region, an analysis has shown that if Cheonan is included in the regulated area, a balloon effect can occur in the nearby Asan area. The Cheonan and Asan areas, which were left out of the regulated areas in the June 17th measures this year, have already experienced an increase in house prices due to the balloon effect. This time, it is analyzed that Asan will be infested with only Cheonan being designated as a regulated area.
An official at the A-certified brokerage office near Buldang-dong, Cheonan said, “I don’t have to watch the news. If the phone calls’I’ll sell it and go to Asan’, it means that Cheonan is a regulated area, Asan is a non-regulated area, and if’I’ll hold the sale.’ “It is a deviation from this regulation.”
Yeo Kyung-hee, a researcher at Real Estate 114, said, “As the house price in Sejong City has risen significantly this year, the house price in Cheonan has also risen. If Cheonan is tied to a regulated area, it cannot be ruled out the possibility that the purchase tax will flow toward the adjacent Asan Tangjeong District,” said.
There is a possibility that demand for housing will flow and diversify into unregulated areas around Uichang-gu, Seongsan-gu, and Nam-gu, Ulsan in Gyeongsangnam-do. In Ulsan and Changwon, the number of occupants is on the decline, and as the rent for rent rises, there is a possibility that real-life demands may continue to prepare homes. “Because the number of occupants in Ulsan will decrease this year and next year, it will be difficult to prevent the price from rising even if it is selected as a regulated area,” said Ham Young-jin, head of the Big Data Lab.
In Uichang-gu and Seongsan-gu, Changwon, Gyeongsangnam-do, voices are also being heard. When the whole country was infested with rising house prices, Changwon house prices did not rise and the asset gap widened. In 2017, apartment prices in Changwon fell 9.27% from the previous year. It fell 10.5% in 2018 and 5.68% last year.
When designated as an area subject to adjustment, the taxation is strengthened, such as excluding special deductions for acquisition tax and transfer tax for multi-homeowners, special deduction for long-term holdings, and additional taxation on comprehensive real estate tax for holders of two or more houses in the area subject to adjustment. Financial regulations and subscription regulations will also be strengthened, such as applying 50% of the mortgage loan ratio of 900 million or less and 30% of the excess amount, and the principle of banning the main charge except for the purpose of living when purchasing a house. To purchase a home in a controlled area, a financing plan must be submitted.
If designated as an overheated district for speculation, regulations on maintenance projects such as transfer of member status and restrictions on resale of sales rights will be further strengthened. The financial regulation system applies the mortgage loan ratio of less than 900 million to 40% and the excess of 20%, and when purchasing a house, mortgage loans other than the purpose of actual residence are prohibited, and subscription regulations are strengthened.
◇ “Paju could be hit… Some provinces also need to be supplied”
Of course, there is a possibility that the real estate market may freeze due to regulatory effects in some regions. A representative place is Paju, Gyeonggi-do. This is because foreign investment rather than real demand appears to have surged in a short period of time, and it has been designated as a regulated area in a situation where supply will continue in the future.
According to the Korea Real Estate Agency, home prices in Paju rose 0.78% and apartment prices 4.56% in the past three months as of the 30th of last month. It was estimated that the number of buyers were residents of Seoul. Seoul residents bought 181 apartments in Paju in September, with 206 in September and 617 in October. The number of purchases of Paju apartments by residents of other regions except Gyeonggi Province also increased. It recorded 95 cases in August, 138 cases in September, and 216 cases in October.
In the future, there is also a lot of supply. The number of occupants this year was 5826, but next year, 5534 new households similar to this year will move in. Researcher Yeo Kyung-hee, Real Estate 114 said, “In the case of Paju, access to Seoul is less than that of Gimpo, so there is a relatively limit to the influx of end-users seeking to build a house in the metropolitan area, so if it is tied to a regulated area, there will be a blow.”
Real estate experts point out that policies should be devised by first considering the factors that have the greatest influence on rising house prices. This means that as the abundant liquidity in the market continues to enter the housing market, it is necessary to find an alternative to absorb liquidity, and to suggest ways to increase supply where it seems difficult to obtain house prices due to insufficient supply.
Professor Kwon Dae-jung of Myongji University’s real estate graduate school said, “One of the main reasons for the rise in house prices in the provinces is liquidity,” and said, “We need an investment that can diversify the abundant floating funds in the market.”
Dongguk University adjunct professor Ko Jun-seok said, “As cats are more suitable than lions for catching mice, supply is more appropriate than regulation to capture the price of a house,” said “if a supply policy is established in the provinces, the price will eventually go down according to the principle of supply and demand.” . He added, “If speculative demand is in the place where the supply is increased, the foot will be tied and you will not be able to make a big profit.”
–
–
– .
