Posted on Monday, March 30, 2020 at 6:30 p.m.
A report from Imperial College London released on Monday estimates that measures taken in Belgium to stem the Covid-19 epidemic will have prevented 560 deaths by March 31. Taking into account the margin of error, the researchers count between 160 and 1,500 people saved.
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The study estimates that 3.7% of the Belgian population has actually contracted the new coronavirus. A figure similar to the average of the 11 European countries studied. It does not correspond to the official reports communicated by the Crisis Center, which only counts the cases confirmed by screening.
The proportion of the infected population is the highest in Spain (15%), according to experts’ calculations. Italy follows with almost 10%. The rate is lowest in Germany (0.72%) and Norway (0.41%), indicating that these countries are at the start of the epidemic.
Overall, the researchers say the measures taken in Europe have reduced the spread of the disease. Cumulated on the 11 countries, they will have prevented between 21,000 and 120,000 deaths at the end of March.
It takes two or three weeks to see the impact of a provision after it is implemented. It is therefore too early to say with certainty that the measures are effective, however the study nuances.
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