April 11, 2020 – 12:03 p.m.
–
Have we made the corona turn?
Researchers at the Max Planck Society in Göttingen are watching the corona pandemic closely and are calculating models in order to better determine the further course. Now they see encouraging developments. Specifically, the model calculation provides that easing measures would be possible in ten days if people continue to abide by the contact ban. But is the model realistic?
How long we have to hold out and why – that explains Dr. Tin in the video.
The ban on contact has an effect
The researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization have adopted the developments of the corona pandemic since then Contact ban from March 22nd exactly in sight. This includes that people should only be outside with a distance of two meters and for the most necessary errands, and a maximum of two to be on the move if they are not people from the same household. Otherwise there will be severe penalties.
Encouraging, but no all-clear
The results of the researchers are encouraging, but are not yet the all-clear. “We see a clear effect of the contact block on March 22nd, and of course the contribution of every single person,” says Viola Priesemann, who works at the Max Planck Institute for Göttingen According to a press release from the Max Planck Society, a research group is leading dynamics and self-organization. “Our society can be really proud that it has made this change.”
Above all, the ban on contact ensures that the number of new infections steadily decreases. Priesemann makes it clear that the consequences could have been serious without the strict ban on contact. “If the restrictions are lifted now, we will be right at the beginning,” says Viola Priesemann. “We see very clearly: the number of cases in two weeks now depends on our behavior.”
Right now, however, it is important to continue to spend as much time as possible at home and to limit direct contact with others.
New infections are important in the long run
According to medical journalist Dr. Christoph Specht is the model of the Göttingen researchers promising, but also fraught with uncertainties. “The model describes what you can hope for and expect,” says the prevention doctor. “It is not yet possible to say whether the easing could really happen in two weeks.”
If we push the infections down as it rises, that’s good for the time being, because then the number of more severe courses, currently 14 percent, will be reduced. It would also be undesirable to have no new infections at all. This may sound paradoxical at first, but it is very important in the long run.
“If we had no more infections at all, we wouldn’t be helped either. We need immunity. And the virus, as contagious as it is, won’t be a problem until many are immune. And many have to do that infected “, said Dr. Woodpecker. The alternative would be a vaccine, but it will only be ready for the market in a year at the earliest.
“And now we have to do the trick that so many people are infected that the proportion of hospitalized patients does not exceed the capacity of the health system,” explains Dr. Woodpecker.
Loosening could be realistic at the end of the month, as it would have to look in order to be able to continue to control the number of new infections, but is not yet in sight.
Video playlist: everything you need to know about the corona virus
NEW SEQUENCE: RTL.de documentary “Zero Hour – Race with the Virus: How do we defeat Corona?”
In the second part of the RTL.de documentary “Zero Hour – Race with the Virus” we ask the question: How do we defeat Corona? To this end, the authors compare the various measures taken by individual countries around the world with the current recommendations from researchers.
– .
