By Le Figaro with AFP
Posted update
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U.S. consumers are showing a little more optimism, with the index measuring their confidence continuing to recover in February, although it remains at still historically low levels, according to the final estimate from the University of Michigan released Friday. The index rose to 67 points in February, 3.2% more than in January, also improving on the preliminary mid-month estimate, which was at 66.4 points, but also higher. expectations of analysts, who anticipated 66.6 points, according to the consensus published by briefing.com.
«After this third monthly increase in a row, confidence is now 17 points above its lowest level in June 2022, but remains nearly 20 points below its historical average“, commented Joanne Hsu, director of the investigation, quoted in the press release. The index measuring their expectations rose 3.2% to 64.7 points. Nevertheless, “consumers continued to express great uncertainty about near-term inflation expectationsadded Joanne Hsu.
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A rise in confidence driven by an improvement in short-term economic expectations
Faced with inflation, 60% of consumers have already adjusted their spending downwards, and even more of them plan to do so this year, which is not without effect on their level of confidence: according to the study , those who have already cut their spending are less confident and anticipate higher future inflation. The rise in confidence is nevertheless driven by an improvement in short-term economic expectations, even if the other components of the index remain unchanged.
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The latest data from the PCE index, published on Friday by the Commerce Department and favored by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), could however have an effect on future consumer confidence, as inflation has started to rise again in January, thereby delaying the return to more bearable levels for consumers. The expectations of the latter over the long term remain above the Fed’s 2% target, since American consumers expect inflation of between 2.9% and 3.1% for the 18th of the 19 last months.
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