According to the “Financial Times”, the amount of Western aid granted to Ukraine has already decreased by almost 90% compared to a year ago. Western voters, incited by far-right pro-Putin politicians, are “tired” of the war in Ukraine.
The FT points out that the scenario of a Russian victory is becoming more and more likely. And if it really happened, then Russia’s victory would have 5 main consequences:
1. Russia will carry out brutal repression throughout the occupied territory of Ukraine. This is not speculation, because this is exactly what we have already seen in the occupied territories in the last 19 months – mass executions, castrations, rapes, tortures and abductions of children. Eventually, millions of Ukrainians will flee to the west, this time for good.
2. The free part of the Ukrainian state could remain in the territories of the western regions of Ukraine. It could even join the EU. But this country will live in constant expectation of a new Russian attack, because the “agreements” signed with Russia are worthless.
3. Putin will control about a quarter of the world’s wheat exports. Food will be the same Russian weapon as gas used to be.
4. Putin’s success will encourage countries interested in invading their neighbors: China, Venezuela, Azerbaijan and Russia itself. Putin has already built a military economy. His army renewed its methods of war. His people showed that they would endure even a great war. Why not continue to bite neighboring countries?
5. NATO will be discredited, which will be the biggest test for it. Putin will seek to prove that NATO and the EU will not withstand further pressure. If the war for the Baltic states starts, after several hundreds of fallen Western soldiers, the far-right parties will demand “peace” with Putin. The West can retreat by declaring that it has fulfilled its commitment under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty on Allied Combat, but does not want nuclear war.
“Americans and Western Europeans feel immune: Putin won’t come after them. No wonder some Eastern European officials began to argue about attacking Russia first, instead of just sitting back and waiting for it to attack them. A more likely scenario: Several European countries spend to protect wealth, restore emergency service and invest in nuclear weapons, while allowing Putin to bully them,” writes the FT.
The newspaper points out that even without the US, Europe is fully capable of helping Ukraine survive the war against Russia. Western analysts estimate that support for Ukraine will cost Europe approximately 40 billion euros per year, or 70 euros per year per European citizen, if only NATO members are counted. “We could find it if we wanted to,” emphasizes the FT.
Perspectives in Russia’s war against Ukraine
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced that Ukraine’s strategic goal for the next year is the liberation of the temporarily occupied Crimea. The minister is sure that this goal could be achieved in 2024.
Meanwhile, the Western press is warning of dire consequences in case Ukraine suffers a defeat in the war. For example, the publication “Foreign Policy” writes that Ukrainians will face terror on a scale not seen in Europe since the totalitarian rule of the 20th century.
2023-12-26 03:34:00
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