Conflicts, pandemic and new society in Latin America

Just before the onset of the pandemic and its dramatic effects, many countries of the Latin American subcontinent were experiencing political and social upheavals of different nature and intensity.

From Chile to Brazil, from Ecuador to Bolivia, the population took to the streets in protest against the authorities for reasons that seemed insufficient to set fire to downtown areas, government buildings, and confront the security forces. People were angered by issues accumulated over time such as social injustice, an incapable and corrupt leadership, and the lack of access to political power for minorities.

The pandemic and the quarantines applied confined the protesters to their private spaces, opening a parenthesis in the climate of conflict. The relaxation of traffic restrictions, added to the fact that the factors that contributed to the aforementioned malaise are still present and living conditions have substantially worsened, cannot but augur a new wave of protests.

The pandemic makes the process of formation of a new society in Latin America transparent, which currently does not have a leadership to match the required demands and which, in addition, must manage increased economic problems

At this stage, at least two relevant questions arise. The first is that States do not have sufficient capacities to manage the conflict with more public spending, lower taxes and interest rates. The pandemic is leaving public coffers exhausted and central banks without room for expansionary policies. Even the countries with better macroeconomic management face limits in the short term that reduce their possibilities of mediation.

Second, despite the fact that some of these insurgencies, such as those in Chile, are not so clear about their leadership or their objectives, they finally move into the political sphere. In that instance it is posed the problem of incorporating social demands on the public agenda that, in many countries, have non-trivial lags. In certain cases, because their leaders believed they could do it in a progressive and controlled way; in others, due to mere myopia originated in their distance from the rest of society.

The issues raised bring with them two readings. The first is the lack of awareness on the part of the leadership about the demands of society, as well as the speed and virulence that these could take, which has revealed their outdated and self-absorbed. The second, the difficulty faced by those who do have an updated agenda, but are still politically marginal, or, as in Argentina, because they have intolerable political debts for a part of the population or face economic restrictions that are difficult to manage.

Those leaderships that, in order to solve the challenges arising from the pandemic, bet on positive external shocks or the mere but unsustainable validation of social claims, will enter a path towards deep crises

Then, the pandemic makes the process of formation of a new society in Latin America transparent, which does not currently have a leadership that is up to the required demands and which, in addition, must manage increased economic problems. Therefore, it is highly probable that social dissatisfaction and violence will grow in the short term, with various manifestations and ups and downs.

The recovery of the world economy, financial flows, and the demand and prices of export products could soften or delay conflicts. However, recent history indicates that they have rarely been enough to resolve them, either because they were transitory or because of the mismanagement of the resources obtained.

In conclusion, those leaderships that to resolve the challenges arising from the pandemic bet on positive external shocks or the mere but unsustainable validation of social claims, will enter a path towards deep crises From which solutions that harmonize, within reasonable time limits, the well-being of the majorities and individual freedoms rarely arise.

The author is Director of the Research Institute of the Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences of the Universidad del Salvador (USAL)

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