“The energy shock knocks down the growth prospects”, warns the Confindustria Study Center which sees GDP in 2022 growing by 3.4% but a zero growth in 2023: “Italy falls into stagnation” and with “inflation record”. The Italian GDP “after a positive dynamic in the first half of 2022 undergoes a downward adjustment between the end of the year and the beginning of 2023, then slowly recovers. The growth in 2022 (+ 3.4%) is already fully achieved and is much higher than that which was expected six months ago. For 2023, however, “in the analysis of the economists of via dell’Astronomia” there is a strong downward revision compared to the April scenario (-1.6 points) which leads to stagnation on average damage”.
At the appointment with the autumn economic forecasts, the study center directed by Alessandro Fontana, among the many insights into a broad scenario, calculates the increase in costs for businesses linked to the shock in energy prices at 110 billion, with an incidence which rises to 9.8% of total costs. “unsustainable levels”.
In terms of employment dynamics, it is expected that “after a setback in the summer, it will become negative between autumn and winter” while “a recovery in the labor market is expected next year”, it will return to grow but “only in the second half of 2023”.
The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 8.1% on average in 2022 and to 8.7% in 2023. Inflation is now at “record” levels in the CsC forecasts for 2022 “on average, will settle at + 7.5% (from + 1.9% in 2021) “while” in 2023, it is expected to decline, but still high, at + 4.5% on average “.
“The energy costs of Italian companies are estimated to increase by 110 billion euros on average in 2022, for the total economy, compared to pre-pandemic values ”, estimates the Confindustria Study Center.” The incidence of energy costs on the total rises from 4.6% to 9.8%, unsustainable levels , which corresponds, despite a heterogeneous rise in sales prices by sector, to a profound reduction in company margins “, warn the economists of via dell’Astronomia. The price of gas slows growth but” if a ceiling could of 100 euros at the price, GDP would gain 1.6% in the two-year period “.
