“In the first quarter of 2021, the intensity of the trend decline in GDP decreases from 6.6% in the previous quarter to 1.4%”. This is Istat’s comment on the preliminary estimate for the quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter and by 1.4% in trend terms. The new contraction, “to a lesser extent” compared to that recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020, “was affected, in particular for the tertiary sector, by the economic effects of the measures adopted to combat the health emergency”.
“The Italian economy sees the recovery from the crisis, in line with Europe”, notes the Confindustria study center with its monthly analysis ‘flash conjuncture’, and warns. “The world has already restarted”. GDP is “closer to the rebound”: in “Italy, the first easing of anti-Covid restrictions began in April. This will lead to a small positive GDP sign in the second quarter”, “the scenario in which a strong rebound is confirmed it will take place in the third quarter, thanks to the increase in vaccinations “, even if” downside risks remain “. From the Pnrr “recovery aid will arrive already in the second half of 2021”.
The first quarter of 2021 sees the loss of 254 thousand employees compared to the previous quarter. The level of employment is 1.1% lower, according to Istat data. In the quarter, both people looking for work (+ 2.4%, equal to + 59 thousand) and inactive people between 15 and 64 years old (+ 1.0%, equal to + 134 thousand units) increased.
“The slight growth in employment recorded in February” continues in March 2021, according to Istat, which registered 34,000 more employees than the previous month (+ 0.2%). Compared to March 2020, the first month of lockdown there are 565 thousand fewer employees, and compared to before the pandemic, in February 2020, almost 900 thousand fewer. The growth in employment involves men, temporary employees, the self-employed and almost all ages. The 35-49 year olds are decreasing as well as women and permanent employees. The employment rate rises to 56.6% (+0.1 points) and is 2 points lower than the pre-Covid level. The unemployment rate among young people rises to 33% in March, returning to the level of January, which had been the highest in recent years, as of April 2018.
The increase detected by Istat is, compared to February, of 1.1 percentage points and, compared to March 2020, of 5.4 points.
–
