It seemed like last night that we would be treated today to a fantastic exhibition day. Wall Street ended with new records and the AEX future was more than 0.7% in the plus. But unfortunately things went differently.
The Americans had to bomb the most important Iranian general if necessary. The result: an exploding oil price and falling stock prices. It is that Royal Dutch Shell (+ 1.5%) is listed in the AEX (-0.3%), because otherwise the damage would have been much greater.
It is mainly debris spacious at our Eastern neighbors. Almost all shares within the DAX (-1.3%) are undermined there. In particular, the Lufthansa shareholders (-7.0%) are better off turning off their laptops. The same applies to that of Air France-KLM (-7.9%).
This not only suffers from a higher oil price, but also from annoying trade unions. The pilots are called to go on strike next Monday and Tuesday. It is not yet clear how much this joke will cost, but it will again be tens of millions of euros.
Dramatic performance
These strikes are also precisely the reason why Air France-KLM shareholders have not earned a penny in recent decades. The company operates in a business with low margins, and if no money comes in on certain days, all profits disappear like snow in the sun.
In fact, if you put € 100 in Air France-KLM 35 years ago, you can now sell the shares for the same price. Then we have even included the dividend. In the meantime, prices have risen and you have had to pay off the covert capital return tax.
Oh yes, the opportunity costs we must not lose sight of it either. The AEX has achieved a whopping 2130% in this period. That means an annual profit of 9.3%.
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Interest rates
The fees on ten-year government paper plummet. That is not a big surprise, given the political tensions in the Middle East.
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Broad market
- The AEX goes down 0.3% and with that we know how to limit the damage considerably better than the Germans (-1.3%). Boss over boss are the French with a plus of 0.01%.
- The AEX VIX index (volatility) climbs 8.6% and scores 13.1 points.
- Wall Street is about 0.6% in the min.
- The euro remains stable and stands at 1,117 against the dollar.
- Gold (+ 1.3%) fully lives up to its name as a safe haven.
- Oil: STI (+ 2.4%) and Brent (+ 2.8%) spray up as a result of the bombing of the Iranian general.
- Bitcoin (+ 5.4%) also goes like a rocket today.
The Damrak
- For the financials it is a day to forget quickly. In particular Aegon (-1.8%) and ASR (-1.8%) are falling fast. Falling interest rates are not exactly helping.
- ArcelorMittal (-3.6%) is also another drama. Yesterday the steel giant could barely keep up with the AEX, but today it is going down ten times as fast. Worthless!
- Defensive ports such as KPN (+ 0.1%), Heineken (+ 0.2%) and Relx (+ 0.1%) remain good.
- Tencent goes down 1.6% so you don’t have to expect that Prosus (-2.1%) is in the mood.
- PostNL (-2.4%) drops by € 2.
- Flow Traders (+ 2.0%) benefited from the sharp increase in volatility.
- Corbion (+ 1.4%) is like a dyke. That while the company did not exactly come out with inspiring quarterly figures in the last year.
- BAM (-1.7%) you simply should never have in your portfolio on these types of trading days.
- WDP (+ 2.8%), on the other hand. What a fantastic ride the logistics real estate fund has made over the past three years. Yesterday there was a split of 1 in 7 and if we correct for this, the share is almost at one all time high.
- Vivoryon (-4.1%) makes a somewhat unfortunate debut in the ASCX. Since the inclusion in the small cap the stock is under pressure.
- Pharming (-4.5%) has a bale day. DWS investments has reduced its stake in biotech business from 3.22% to 2.99%.
Advice
- DSM: to keep and € 119 – Societe Generale
The day of tomorrow
Tomorrow is of course the weekend. I then have the honor to look forward to the coming week. Then I just wish you a nice weekend!
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