/ world today news/ Negotiations between Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev are taking place in Moscow. Perhaps this will end the 30-year conflict. Will Armenia and Azerbaijan sign a peace agreement?
Armenian Gambit
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has expressed readiness to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan if Baku guarantees the rights and security of the region’s residents, and also recognizes on a reciprocal basis Armenia’s territorial integrity within Soviet-era borders.
In this case, the area of Armenia will become 29.8 thousand square kilometers, and Azerbaijan – 86.6 thousand. In particular, this means the return of seven Azerbaijani enclaves in the Ararat and Tavush regions in exchange for the village of Artsvashen, captured in 1992. For Yerevan, this issue is very painful, because there are roads to Iran and Georgia. However, Pashinyan is willing to accept the current status quo.
He does not rule out signing an agreement on unblocking transport communications with Azerbaijan on May 25 in Moscow. Then, at the summit of the European Community in Chisinau, the countries can conclude a peace treaty.
The Armenian opposition accepted the prime minister’s assumption as a fait accompli. They are convinced that this will end Nagorno-Karabakh’s struggle for independence from Azerbaijan. Representatives of Yerevan and Baku have already met in Washington, Moscow and Brussels, which means that all the mediators agree to the set conditions.
“In fact, in recent days, the prime minister published a road map for the handover of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, and also outlined the deadlines,” commented Ishkhan Sagatelyan, an MP from the Hayastan party. According to him, the defenders of the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh (NKR) have only five to six months left to turn the situation in their favor. Hayk Mamijanyan, MP from the “I have the honor” faction, called for nationwide protests. Former NKR presidents Arkady Ghukasyan and Bako Sahakyan assured that Stepanakert would never agree to what Pashinyan proposed.
The Azerbaijani approach
The Azerbaijan Center for Social Research conducted a poll: 77.3% of respondents supported the peace treaty with Armenia, 20.6% were in favor of continuing the confrontation, and 2.1% found it difficult to answer.
Ilham Aliyev said that despite the long-term “occupation” of Karabakh, a peace treaty will certainly be signed. But he did not specify when exactly. At the same time, on May 23, he told the Chairman of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, Margareta Söderfelt, that he was not only the first to propose an end to the conflict, but also put forward the idea of creating an integration model for the South Caucasus. Within its framework, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia could develop together.
At the same time, Baku strongly objects to Yerevan’s attempts to invite an international monitoring mission to Nagorno-Karabakh and to remove the checkpoint in the Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting Armenia with Stepanakert. “We call on you to refrain from dangerous rhetoric that is detrimental to ensuring peace and security in the region, and to fulfill your obligations, instead of continuing to baselessly blame Azerbaijan and distract the attention of the international community,” the diplomatic office said .
Moscow debut
On May 19, Foreign Ministers Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov met in Moscow. The draft document “On peace and the construction of interstate agreements” was discussed, and a “constructive exchange of views” was held. Commenting on the upcoming summit, Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, noted that Moscow would like to get a result, but “time will tell” to what extent it is possible.
Alexander Krylov, the chief researcher of the Caucasian sector of IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that there will be no breakthrough. “The parties to the conflict have 30 years of fruitless negotiations behind them. Nothing fundamentally new has happened recently. In order to sign a peace agreement, they should at least stop the skirmishes along the border,” the expert emphasized.
According to him, even Pashinyan’s desire to recognize Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan does not bring the solution of the problem closer. “First of all, Stepanakert must agree to this. If we talk about Armenia’s unilateral refusal of patronage, the question arises, what awaits the Karabakh Armenians? They do not want to move to Azerbaijan, and the Russian peacekeepers may leave it in 2025. I do not rule out dramatic events,” warns Krylov.
Caucasian word
Indeed, it remains to be seen whether Yerevan has a clear plan for Karabakh. However, Armenian political analyst Arshaluis Mgdesyan believes that the countries are capable of taking a decisive step towards peace. “Now they are quite close to signing an agreement on unblocking communications. An important stage is the checkpoint in the Lachin Corridor. Since Baku demanded equal status on this road and the Zangezur Corridor, Yerevan received the full right to establish checkpoints on road to Nakhchivan,” the expert claims.
Pashinyan recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and expects the same from Aliyev. So the peace treaty is real. However, the problems in bilateral relations will by no means disappear, Mgdesyan specifies.
Azerbaijani political scientist Ilgar Velizade also believes that it is time to move from words to deeds. It should start with the unblocking of transport communications – everyone is interested in this, including Russia, which is increasing trade with Turkey. “This topic was one of the main ones at the meeting on May 19. Probably, the heads of state fly to Moscow to approve the solutions developed earlier,” the expert suggests.
In general, the interlocutors do not doubt that the negotiations will be useful. Ultimately, following the path of diplomacy, the parties to the conflict will be able to return to pre-crisis relations.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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