“Trump’s policies will be harmful, but I am more deeply concerned about democratic institutions,” he tells “Vima” Francis Fukuyamapolitical scientist who became world famous with his book “The End of History”.
He currently teaches International Relations at Stanford University and spoke to us by phone on Thursday from California.
What are your top concerns about a second Trump term?
“I have various concerns. Some of them concern his domestic policies, such as imposing tariffs, using the Justice Department to hunt down his enemies, and mass deportations of illegal immigrants.
In foreign policy I worry that he will try to impose a pro-Russian solution to end the war in Ukraine. These policies are harmful, but I also have a deeper concern related to American democratic institutions. Donald Trump has disrupted the rule of law, he did not accept his defeat in the 2020 election, he managed to convince many Republicans that Joe Biden was an illegitimate president, and this led to a great loss of trust in institutions. He has promised to pardon the violent protesters who stormed the Capitol on January 6. Therefore I believe that the problem is not so much about his policies as about the institutions. It refuses to confine itself within the limits set by the institutions of American democracy, and for this reason it weakens them.”
Elon Musk has had an unusually intrusive role alongside Trump on the campaign trail.
Will it also affect his policies?
“We don’t know that. It is said that he will lead a commission on government efficiency, but it is not certain. Musk, although a very good businessman, doesn’t really know American governance, doesn’t understand the constraints he’s under, went from a Democrat and a Hillary Clinton supporter to a fanatical Trump supporter and this shows that his political yardstick is fickle and ultimately , not very good. That’s why leading any kind of government agency will have uncertain and potentially dangerous results.”
How can the polarization that characterizes the US be reversed?
“In various ways. I believe the most effective is through elections – if politicians who support populist divisions are not elected. For example, we saw many who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election campaign for their election at the state level and of course Trump at the national level.
If these views are defeated at the ballot box by voters, they will no longer exist. The problem is that the biggest naysayer scored an emphatic victory. If Trump’s policies have consequences, such as global recession or outbreak of violence, the world may turn against him and reject such policies. It’s a possibility, but right now we can’t say how realistic it is.”
Do you think Trump alone is responsible for the polarization?
“Of course he is responsible. The polarization started in the 90s but has been greatly deepened by Trump. It began after Republicans captured the House of Representatives, which had been controlled by Democrats for several decades. Newt Gingrich, head of the Republican House of Representatives in the 90s, began to use tactics different from the “gentleman” attitude followed until then. Thus the polarization began. At the same time, there was a deepening social polarization, as the gap widened between the educated Americans in the big cities and the less educated who lived in the countryside. This intensified in the last generation. If you look at the map of this year’s election results, the urban centers voted for Kamala Harris while the rest of the country is “red”. This represents a self-segregation of Americans who increasingly live in neighborhoods where people vote like them. So there is a social and demographic factor in the polarization.
Finally, the working class, which voted Democratic from the New Deal through the 1980s, from Ronald Reagan onwards, increasingly defected to the Republicans. This has accelerated in recent years and today the Democratic Party is dominated by college graduates and professionals while the Republican Party is dominated by the working class. This overthrow contributed to the polarization by creating a class gap between the two parties.”
Is the so-called “free world” in danger of becoming less free because of Trump?
“Liberal democracies will obviously not disappear because of Trump, but they will weaken because the US is moving away from its leadership role. The American democratic model is not as respected globally today as it once was – we are so polarized that we cannot agree on the budget, extremism is on the rise, Congress has become dysfunctional because polarization does not allow it to properly handle serious issues. In Europe, there are many populist parties that will be inspired by Trump’s victory.”
What will Trump’s second term mean for the world?
“Trump is much more positive towards Russia, so he will reduce support for Ukraine and NATO. I don’t believe it will pull the US out of NATO, but it will weaken it by calling into question the American commitment. As for China, although he criticizes it with his rhetoric, it is not clear whether he wishes to use force to defend the interests of countries such as Taiwan, Japan and Korea. Consequently, US commitments to its allies in this region will be weakened. In the Middle East he will be much more supportive of Benjamin Netanyahu.”
What factors contributed to Trump’s victory and Harris’ defeat?
“Many, such as growing economic disparities, reduced opportunities, the geographic segregation I mentioned above, that information has shifted from traditional media such as newspapers and television to the Internet and social media, which are easier to manipulate and which exert a great influence on the world’s way of thinking, that many people reacted to the identity (woke) politics that many on the Left follow. For most of the 20th century, the Left was traditionally against inequalities against large groups, such as the working class, but with the rise of identity politics, it treats inequalities as targeting specific groups, such as African Americans, women, gays, etc. a. One of the hallmarks of identity politics is that it victimizes the members of these groups and categorizes the world according to these predetermined categories. This has affected the way recruitment is done – should a woman or a black person be hired –, university admissions, etc. All this created a great reaction.”
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