Complex chip market for smartphones, tablets, etc.

technology.

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Intel is coming back strong with its 18A technology.

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Highly strategic, the market for processors and their technologies is concentrated in a few major companies. Apple, Qualcomm, Huawei and Samsung, for example, all use the ARM architecture. MediaTek, the rising player, also relies on the latter’s designs, while Intel and AMD focus on traditional computers. Update.

MediaTek, Qualcomm, Apple, Unisoc, Samsung (with its Exynos range) and Huawei (with its Kirin chips) dominate the smartphone and tablet chip sector using the ARM architecture of the eponymous British company. Well illustrated by Counterpointthis concentration of the market in a few hands is all the more critical since these chips are overwhelmingly produced by the Taiwanese TSMC.

Recovery expected in 2024

After a difficult period, the semiconductor market is expected to experience a significant rebound in 2024, with growth forecasts ranging from 9% to 20% according to analysts. This recovery would be mainly driven by growing demand in the smartphone and personal computer sectors.

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into smartphones is emerging as a key factor in revitalizing the market, with forecasts indicating that one in five smartphones sold in 2024 will integrate generative AI capabilities. More generally, graphics card designer Nvidia is occupying an increasingly important place in this niche.

The race for miniaturization

Chip fineness remains a major challenge for manufacturers, with a gradual transition to the 3nm manufacturing process. MediaTek, Samsung and others have announced their intention to adopt this technology by the end of 2024. Intel, which designs and melts its PC chips, also intends to come back in force with its new Intel 18 A technology.

Overall, the arrival of 3nm promises significant gains in terms of performance and energy efficiency, with an increase of around 18% in performance at equal consumption compared to the previous generation in 5nm. Now, the most advanced foundries are aiming for 2nm, or even 1.8nm, like Intel.

The battle of architectures

In terms of design, ARM architecture dominates the mobile device market. It is used by Samsung, Huawei, MediaTek, and Apple, not to mention all the others. Now, in the PC market, it competes with traditional x86 designs from Intel and AMD. Qualcomm has high ambitions in this area, aiming to gain up to 50% of the PC market by 2029 with its Snapdragon chips, famous on smartphones.

This diversification of architectures could redefine the landscape of the computer processor market in the years to come, offering consumers a wider choice of performance and battery life. It represents a real challenge for Intel, which has been a little pale in recent years, but which could come back in force.

International Corporation). Together, they dominate the market with a share of around 90%, selon Trendforce.

TSMC (which also makes AMD chips) is the undisputed leader in the semiconductor foundry market. With a market share of about 62%, TSMC is the main supplier of chips to major technology companies, including Apple, which accounts for about 25% of its revenue. Samsung comes in second with just over 11% of sales, selon Trendforce.

Risky concentrations…

Despite the positive outlook, the semiconductor market continues to face significant challenges. The geographical concentration of production, particularly in Taiwan with TSMC, raises questions of security of supply and geopolitics. International tensions and efforts to relocate some production add a layer of complexity to an already highly technical and competitive market.

Finally, still somewhat in the shadows, American financial players such as Vanguard Fiduciary Trust and BlackRock Advisors are major players in Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm and TSMC. ARM is majority-owned by the Japanese group SoftBank, while TSMC is majority-owned by Taiwanese and Samsung Korean.

Xavier Studer

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