Despite the multifaceted effects of the coronavirus, Comparis does not expect a hypo interest rate shock in 2021.
the essentials in brief
- Despite rising inflation rates, Comparis does not expect a hypo interest rate shock in 2021.
- In the medium term, inflation rates should level off at two percent.
Even if inflation rates are still rising somewhat in the current year, this is unlikely to have a greater impact on mortgage interest rates. This emerges from the current update of the Comparis mortgage rate forecast for 2021. The pandemic is currently causing inflation to flare up, writes the comparison service in a statement published on Thursday.
But in the medium term, inflation rates would level off around the central banks’ target of two percent. The fierce competition among mortgage providers should also keep interest rates low.
Comparis: slight upward pressure on long-term mortgages
Against this background, Comparis expects only slight upward pressure, especially for long-term mortgages. The Comparis mortgage rate forecast for 2021 for ten-year mortgages will therefore be expanded from 0.9 to 1.3 percent. The benchmark interest rates for five-year mortgages are likely to remain in an interest rate band between 0.7 and 1 percent.
As of mid-July, the benchmark rate for a ten-year mortgage with Comparis is 1.15 percent. For the five-year term it stands at 0.92 percent.
Moneyland sees a similar development
The online comparison service Moneyland sees the development in a similar way. Interest rates are likely to remain at a low level over the next few months, according to a Moneyland press release. Depending on the economic development, rising interest rates cannot be ruled out.
The average interest rate for ten-year fixed-rate mortgages is 1.17 percent at the middle of the month and 0.95 percent for five-year mortgages. This means that the current mortgage interest rates are currently again below the previous average for 2021.
It is still unclear whether the fixed-rate mortgages with long terms will be as cheap again this year as they were in March 2020. At the beginning of the Corona crisis in March 2020, mortgage interest rates had almost reached the historic low of August 2019.
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