Table of Contents
Image provided by EPA
image captionUkraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has continued to call for restrictions on the use of the Army’s Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to be lifted
5 hours ago
Ido Vock, BBC News
For the first time, Washington has authorized Ukraine to use its own long-range missiles against targets inside Russian territory.
The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden, whose term ends in January next year, has announced that the Ukrainian government will allow American-made missiles known as the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to be used on Russian territory, albeit for limited purposes. was allowed. CBS News, the BBC’s American affiliate, reported on the 17th.
The U.S. government has so far denied such measures to Ukraine, fearing it would escalate the war.
The next person to enter the White House after the Biden administration will be Republican President-elect Donald Trump, who opposes continued US military aid to Ukraine.
Why did America allow this?
Ukraine has been using ATACMS against targets in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory for more than a year.
Targets included Russian military bases in the Russian-occupied Crimea Peninsula and Russian military bases in the southeastern Zaporizhzhya Oblast.
However, the US government has so far not allowed the Ukrainian government to use this long-range missile on Russian territory.
With a range of up to 300 kilometers, the Lockheed Martin ballistic missile is one of the most powerful weapons the United States has already provided to Ukraine.
Ukraine has argued that being told that it cannot be used on Russian territory is like being told to fight with one hand tied behind your back.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has so far not said whether this decision is true. However, on the 17th, he said, “Missile attacks are not just words…The missiles themselves speak louder.”
image captionATACMS used in US-South Korea joint exercises
The effectiveness of missiles on the battlefield
Following the decision by the US government, Ukraine will be able to attack targets located on Russian territory. The first attack will probably be in Kursk Oblast, where Ukrainian forces occupy more than 1,000 square kilometers of territory.
Both the Ukrainian and American governments expect Russian and North Korean forces to launch a counteroffensive to retake territory in Kursk.
In response, Ukraine could use ATACMS to target Russian military locations, including military bases, infrastructure, and weapons depots.
However, simply using the provided missiles will probably not change the tide of this war. In anticipation of a decision like this, the Russian military is already moving fighter jets and other equipment deeper into the country, farther from the border than in the Kursk region.
However, the decision could be good news for the Ukrainian military, as Russian forces continue to advance in eastern Ukraine and Ukrainian military morale is declining.
“I don’t think it will have a decisive effect,” a Western diplomat in the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, told the BBC. The diplomat requested anonymity due to the difficult nature of the situation.
“However, it is too late to make a symbolic decision to increase the risk of fighting by showing military support to Ukraine,” and “it may increase the cost of war for Russia.” The official spoke.
There is also the question of exactly how many missiles to provide, said Evelyn Farkas, who served as assistant secretary of defense in the administration of former US President Barack Obama.
“Of course, there’s the question of how many missiles Ukraine will have. The Pentagon has warned that it doesn’t really have that many missiles to offer Ukraine,” Farkas said. I spoke.
Furthermore, Farkas said that if Ukraine were to use ATACMS to attack, for example, the Kerch Bridge that connects Crimea to the Russian mainland, it could have an “effective psychological impact.”
The decision by the US government is expected to have ripple effects on other Western countries. As a result, Britain and France will be able to permit the long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles they each provide to Ukraine to be used on Russian territory. The British and French “Storm Shadow” has capabilities comparable to the American ATACMS.
Will it lead to an escalation of war?
In recent months, the Biden administration has not allowed Ukraine to attack Russian territory with long-range missiles, fearing an escalation of the war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned against allowing Western weapons to attack Russia. Putin publicly said in September that doing so would constitute NATO members’ “direct participation” in the war in Ukraine.
“This really changes the nature and the nature of the conflict,” the president continued, “which means NATO countries, the United States and European countries, are fighting Russia.”
The Russian government has previously drawn “red lines” that must not be crossed. Even if the West surpassed this goal in providing state-of-the-art tanks and fighter jets, for example, it would not lead to a war between Russia and NATO.
Kurt Volcker, who served as NATO ambassador during the first Trump administration, said, “By restricting the range of use of American weapons against Ukraine, the United States has unfairly and unilaterally imposed restrictions on Ukraine’s self-defense. ” he pointed out.
He further said that the Biden administration’s restrictions on the use of ATACMS were “completely arbitrary and out of fear of Russian ‘provocation.'”
All eyes are on President-elect Trump
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image captionPresident-elect Trump’s allies have already criticized the Biden administration’s decision
Although not directly involved in this decision, President-elect Trump will have a significant influence going forward. This is because Mr. Biden is a “lame duck” president with only two months left in his term.
Trump has not said whether he will continue with this decision. However, there are already voices of criticism among his close aides.
The president-elect’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., tweeted on social media: “The military-industrial complex is apparently guaranteed to start World War III before my father can make peace and save lives. Looks like I want to do it,” he wrote.
Other than pledging to end the war in Ukraine within his first day in office, the president-elect has so far not provided any details on exactly how he will do that or what his policy toward Ukraine will be. There wasn’t. Mr. Trump has repeatedly said that he respects President Putin, and Democratic Party officials have consistently criticized Mr. Trump for being cozy with Mr. Putin.
Many Trump campaign officials, including Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, believe that the United States should no longer provide military aid to Ukraine.
However, those close to the incoming Trump administration have objections. Michael Walz, the president’s incoming National Security Adviser, has argued that the United States could accelerate arms deliveries to Ukraine in order to force Russia to come to the negotiating table.
It is unclear which direction the next president will take. But many in Ukraine fear Mr. Trump will cut off arms supplies, including ATCMS.
“I’m worried. I hope he doesn’t overturn[the decision],” Oleksiy Goncharenko, a member of Ukraine’s parliament, told the BBC.
What are the potential reactions from Russia if long-range missiles are used by Ukraine against its territory?
– Will the US government’s decision to approve the use of long-range missiles by Ukraine against Russian territory lead to an escalation of the war, and what are the potential implications for other Western countries?
– Is there a risk that NATO could be drawn into the conflict if Russia perceives the use of these missiles as a direct threat?
– How have previous red lines set by the Russian government affected the course of the war, and what might lead them to escalate their involvement further?
– What is President-elect Trump’s likely approach to the conflict in Ukraine, and how might it differ from the current administration’s policy?
– How do Ukrainians feel about the possibility of reduced military aid from the West, including the use of ATACMS missiles?
