Combined emotions amongst exporters

••• By Reinhard Krémer

Regardless of all of the geopolitical tensions, exporters are optimistic concerning the future: eight out of ten corporations (82%) anticipate a rise in gross sales, way more than the yr earlier than (70%). This was the results of a present examine by the credit score insurer Acredia in collaboration with Allianz Commerce, by which 3,200 exporters had been examined in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, in in Britain, the US and China. “In the intervening time it doesn’t appear to be a meteoric restoration in world commerce,” says Michael Kolb, CEO of Acredia, describing the present state of affairs.

“In truth, progress within the second half of the yr is unlikely to make up for the earlier yr’s losses. ”
The credit score insurer expects world commerce to extend 2.8% when it comes to worth in 2024 after falling 2.9% in 2023. That will be effectively beneath the long-term common of plus 5 %.
In Austria, too, the overall circumstances for exporting are troublesome – excessive prices for power, personnel and administration scale back revenue margins.

Progress impulses are weak

On the identical time, there’s solely a weak progress development from a very powerful export markets, particularly Germany. Just lately, export progress in Austria has misplaced momentum. In response to the Wifo flash estimate, the Austrian economic system appears to have grown solely barely within the first quarter of 2024 (+0.2%).

When requested concerning the largest dangers, 73% of corporations answered the geopolitical state of affairs.
“Hardly ever has there been a lot geopolitical stress and uncertainty proper now,” Kolb mentioned. “These are partly affecting provide chains and transport routes, such because the Crimson Sea disaster. The brand new border controls are additionally more likely to put provide chains to the take a look at.”
The extent to which geopolitical dangers have an effect on corporations is proven by the truth that 53% are pondering of transferring their illustration for that reason.

Provide chains trigger issues

Provide chains additionally trigger complications for exporters. Above all, sturdy density and excessive complexity are talked about as challenges.

In Austria, too, three out of 4 corporations say they’re nonetheless battling provide chain issues (supply: OeKB). Final however not least, the shortage of sources – from uncooked supplies to expert employees to monetary capital – causes critical issues for the export business.
Regardless of the anticipated gross sales, corporations are conscious of the damaging state of affairs – particularly when it comes to financing. Poor cost practices, rising cost defaults and a big enhance in bankruptcies are at the moment threatening the monetary stability of many corporations.
“Practically 70 % of corporations worldwide solely receives a commission after 30 to 70 days,” mentioned Kolb. “Because of decrease progress, a number of commerce disputes and geopolitical uncertainty, 42 % of corporations worldwide anticipate to have to attend even longer for his or her cash within the subsequent six to 12 months.” earlier than us Longer cost phrases imply extra strain on money circulate.” As well as, 40% of respondents anticipate default danger to extend in 2024.

Yellow alert in Austria

That is in step with Acredia’s forecast that international company bankruptcies will rise by 9 % this yr.

The credit score insurer additionally sees a yellow warning for the Austrian economic system. “Initially of the yr we assumed that the variety of firm bankruptcies in Austria would rise to the identical degree as worldwide, which is 9 %. Nevertheless, since there have been already 27 % extra bodily violations within the first quarter than within the earlier yr, it’s uncertain that this forecast will maintain,” says Michael Kolb.