College Basketball Season Sees Unprecedented Parity as Top Teams Suffer Upsets
In a season filled with unexpected outcomes and upsets, college basketball is experiencing unprecedented parity. The recent string of losses by top-ranked teams to unranked opponents has left fans and analysts in awe. The chaos began on January 9th when Iowa State defeated then-No. 2 Houston, ending their undefeated streak and setting the stage for a wild week in college hoops. Purdue, Kansas, and Tennessee, ranked No. 1, 3, and 5 respectively, all suffered defeats within a 48-hour period, marking the first time in history that four top-five teams lost in such a short span of time. By the end of the week, eight of the top-10 teams had been defeated by unranked opponents.
This level of unpredictability is not limited to just one week; it has become the norm throughout this topsy-turvy college basketball season. Ken Pomeroy, the creator of advanced statistics site KenPom.com, has been analyzing the college basketball landscape for years and believes that this season is more wide open than average. He compares it to last year, which was considered the pinnacle of parity in college basketball. In the previous season, a record-breaking 54 teams cycled through the AP Top 25 rankings, foreshadowing one of the most unpredictable NCAA Tournaments in history. Last year’s tournament saw a No. 1 seed, Purdue, lose to a No. 16 seed, Fairleigh Dickinson, for only the second time ever. None of the No. 1 seeds made it to the Elite Eight, and three programs made their first-ever Final Four appearances.
The trend of unpredictability continues this season with 47 different teams already appearing in the AP poll, and there is still over a month until Selection Sunday. Notably, top-10 teams have struggled on the road against unranked opponents, with a win percentage of just 32-33, the worst in the modern era. Marquette, Arizona, and Kansas have each lost three such games. The trend continued last weekend when Illinois and Tennessee became the latest top-10 teams to fall to unranked opponents, bringing the total number of losses in these situations to a record-breaking 33 for the season.
The question arises: why is this happening? While there is no one clear answer, industry insiders point to several contributing factors. One factor is the quality of coaching, which is difficult to quantify. In recent seasons, multiple Hall of Fame coaches have retired, and their successors have not always had seamless transitions. The departure of iconic coaches like Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, and Jay Wright has left a void in the dominant blue-blood programs. Kansas is currently the only blue-blood program with a high-level coach, which has created more room for other teams to compete.
Two recent rule changes have also had a significant impact on the sport. The passage of the one-time transfer rule in April 2021 has allowed players to move more freely between programs. Additionally, the lingering extra year of eligibility granted to players after the cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Tournament due to COVID-19 has resulted in more experienced players in college basketball. This combination of older players and talent being dispersed among teams has led to a bunching up of competition.
Data analysis supports this notion, showing that the top teams in recent years are less dominant compared to previous seasons. The truly elite teams are fewer in number, while the teams just outside the AP poll are stronger and more capable than usual. This dynamic has blurred the line between the top-ranked teams and those just below them, contributing to the increased parity in college basketball.
Another factor contributing to the parity is the changing landscape of recruiting. In the past, teams like Kentucky and Duke dominated with star one-and-done freshmen. However, this trend has diminished in recent years. Last season, for the first time since 1998, no Final Four team started a single true freshman. This season, only two freshmen are starters among the top-10 teams, highlighting the importance of experience in today’s game. The additional COVID year of eligibility has made college basketball teams older than ever before, with players staying in college longer. Acquiring experienced talent has become crucial, and teams that have successfully recruited transfers have been able to compete with traditional blue-blood programs.
The age discrepancy in college basketball has created a significant advantage for teams with older players. Younger teams often struggle against more physically mature opponents, similar to the challenges faced by younger players competing against older age groups at the grassroots level. Furthermore, the quality of freshmen in recent years has declined, with fewer impactful first-year players compared to previous seasons.
Despite the widespread parity throughout the regular season, there is still uncertainty about whether this trend will continue into March Madness. While the data suggests that this year’s postseason will live up to its moniker, some teams at