Cody Bellinger’s Contract Falls Short of Expectations, May Impact Other Boras Clients
In a surprising turn of events, Cody Bellinger, one of Scott Boras’ top free-agent clients, has agreed to a contract that is significantly lower than what was initially anticipated. This unexpected outcome may have implications for other players represented by Boras, as teams might now feel more inclined to hold their ground during negotiations.
Bellinger’s reported three-year, $80 million deal with the Chicago Cubs includes opt-outs that allow him to test the free-agent market again next year. It is speculated that he might be able to secure a more lucrative contract at that time, potentially closer to the projections made by industry experts. Tim Britton of The Athletic estimated a six-year, $162 million deal for Bellinger, while MLBTradeRumors.com suggested a staggering 12-year, $264 million contract.
This situation mirrors what happened with Carlos Correa, another Boras client, who opted out of his initial three-year, $105.3 million contract with the Minnesota Twins. Correa ultimately signed a six-year, $200 million deal after the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets backed out of their respective $300 million-plus offers due to concerns about his physical condition.
Other Boras clients, such as Adrían Beltré, Dallas Keuchel, and Mike Moustakas, have also experienced similar situations in the past. They initially settled for lesser contracts but were able to make up for the difference later on. However, Bellinger will need to prove himself once again if he hopes to secure a more substantial deal in the future. He had a strong season last year, finishing 10th in the National League MVP voting and winning the NL Comeback Player of the Year award.
Despite his accomplishments, Bellinger’s average annual value of $26.67 million ranks 37th all-time, just below players like Freddie Freeman and Carlos Rodón. It is worth noting that Bellinger is entering his age 28 season, which is the same age that another Boras client, Corey Seager, was when he signed a massive 10-year, $325 million contract with the Texas Rangers two years ago. Seager’s value was bolstered by his position as a shortstop and his previous accolades, including being named the 2016 NL Rookie of the Year and the 2020 World Series MVP. However, concerns about his durability and a fractured hand limited his playing time in the season leading up to his contract negotiation.
Bellinger, on the other hand, is a versatile player who can play both center field and first base. He was named the NL Rookie of the Year in 2017 and the NL MVP in 2019. While his performance last season appeared impressive on the surface, with a .307 batting average, 26 home runs, and an .881 OPS, teams were skeptical about the sustainability of his bounceback. His average exit velocity was lower than four out of five major leaguers, leading to doubts about whether he had fully recovered from his injury-plagued 2021 and 2022 seasons.
Part of Bellinger’s challenge was the unexpectedly lukewarm market for his services. Reduced spending by high-payroll teams like the Mets and Padres, as well as uncertainty surrounding future local television revenues, limited his options. Boras has often been able to identify teams willing to spend big, but this offseason, no such team emerged apart from the Dodgers, who opted for non-Boras alternatives.
This turn of events has led rival agents and some club officials to question whether Boras overplayed his hand not only with Bellinger but also with other members of his client roster, including Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Matt Chapman. It remains unclear what Boras initially expected for Bellinger, but it is reasonable to wonder if aiming lower could have resulted in a more favorable outcome. Perhaps a four-year, $120 million deal or a five-year, $145 million contract could have been within reach. Now that Bellinger’s contract details are public, it wouldn’t be surprising if Snell, Montgomery, and Chapman settle for similar “bridge” contracts.
San Francisco Giants president of baseball operations, Farhan Zaidi, who is interested in acquiring one of the pitchers as well as Chapman, is unlikely to back down in his negotiations with Boras. Other teams may also be less inclined to give in to Boras’ demands.
Boras can attribute the regression in the market to various factors, such as clubs scaling back their spending and uncertainties surrounding future revenues. He can also highlight the flexibility Bellinger retains over his future, as he still has the opportunity to secure a significant contract after this season or the next.
While the game is far from over, it’s hard to imagine that Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer wouldn’t be thrilled with the outcome of signing Bellinger for three years and $
