Cody Bellinger Agrees to Three-Year, $80MM Deal with Cubs
In a surprising turn of events, free agent Cody Bellinger has reached an agreement with the Chicago Cubs on a three-year, $80MM deal. The news broke overnight, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan reporting the details of the contract. The deal includes opt-outs following the 2024 and 2025 seasons, giving Bellinger some flexibility in the future.
This signing marks Bellinger’s return to the Cubs after signing a one-year deal with the club last winter. He had an outstanding season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 556 plate appearances. Bellinger’s performance earned him a Silver Slugger award and a top-10 finish in NL MVP voting, making him one of the most sought-after hitters in free agency.
Many big-market clubs were initially interested in Bellinger’s services, including the San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees, and Toronto Blue Jays. However, each team shifted their focus elsewhere during the month of December. The Giants signed KBO star Jung Hoo Lee, the Yankees acquired Juan Soto, and the Blue Jays pursued smaller deals. This left the Cubs as one of the few remaining suitors for Bellinger.
The negotiations between Bellinger’s camp and the Cubs extended into Spring Training as both parties held out for a long-term deal. Ultimately, the Cubs’ patience paid off as they secured Bellinger’s services for at least the 2024 season on a relatively low-cost contract. This deal is similar to the three-year, $105MM deal that Carlos Correa signed with the Minnesota Twins two offseasons ago.
Several factors likely contributed to Bellinger’s decision to sign a short-term deal. In the previous two seasons, he struggled with shoulder issues and a fractured fibula, resulting in poor performance at the plate. Despite playing through injuries, Bellinger managed to accumulate 900 plate appearances but hit just .193/.256/.355 during that time. This stark contrast to his Rookie of the Year and MVP-winning seasons in 2017 and 2019 raised concerns among potential suitors.
While Bellinger’s strong and healthy 2023 campaign helped alleviate some of those concerns, there are still doubts about the sustainability of his performance. Advanced metrics reveal that his career-best batting average last season was supported by a low strikeout rate but also benefited from a high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). His contact quality metrics, such as average exit velocity and barrel rate, were below average compared to other qualified major leaguers.
Considering Bellinger’s struggles in recent seasons and the concerning peripherals underlying his 2023 success, it is not surprising that he opted for a short-term deal with opt-outs. This type of contract allows him to maintain flexibility and potentially seek a more lucrative deal in the future.
As more details emerge about this signing, it will be interesting to see how Bellinger’s performance unfolds in the upcoming seasons. The Cubs have secured a talented hitter, but only time will tell if this deal proves to be a wise investment.