Cocoa Prices Surge to Record Highs
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The price of cocoa has skyrocketed, reaching unprecedented levels in recent weeks. On December 18th, the price per ton nearly touched $12,000 on the New York Stock exchange, closing at $12,014.67. This follows a surge past $10,000 on December 10th, according to the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO).
As of January 2nd, 2025, the price remained elevated, closing at $11,216 per ton, as reported by Reuters. This dramatic increase is largely attributed to substantially lower-than-expected production in key cocoa-growing regions.
Experts point to a confluence of factors driving this price spike. anaximandro Rojas, president of the Peruvian Association of Cocoa Producers (Appcacao), and Alonso Macedo, an economist at the Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE), both cite reduced production in the Ivory Coast and Ghana as primary culprits.
Rojas highlights the fact that West Africa accounts for nearly 70% of global cocoa production. He notes that these regions faced meaningful challenges in 2024, including widespread droughts and crop diseases that devastated cocoa plantations.
Macedo elaborates, stating, “The latest projections suggest that cocoa production in this area will once again be reduced. Ghana expects a 5% reduction in the 2024-2025 production season. These agricultural campaigns fail to overcome the problems they face and the cocoa market is expected to be very tight, with a fairly strong deficit.”
The ICCO anticipates a substantial production deficit of 374,000 tons of cocoa, further fueling price increases.José Antonio Mejía, president of the Coffee and cocoa Commitee of the Association of Exporters (Adex), adds that the main harvest in the Ivory Coast was smaller than predicted, and the secondary harvest also underperformed.
These developments have significant implications for the global chocolate industry and consumers worldwide. Expect to see potential price increases across the board for chocolate products in the coming months. The impact on U.S. consumers remains to be seen, but the ripple effects of this cocoa shortage are likely to be felt throughout the supply chain.
Soaring Cocoa Prices: A Global Market Analysis
The global cocoa market is experiencing a dramatic surge in prices, impacting everything from chocolate bars to confectionery exports. This unprecedented rise is primarily attributed to a significant shortfall in harvests from key African producing nations, particularly Ghana and Ivory Coast. Experts predict that these high prices will persist for at least two to three years, given the time it takes for cocoa trees to mature and produce a new crop.
“In 2025,it is expected that Africa’s harvest will still be poor all year and prices will be very high. What’s more,at one point it was thought that cocoa could reach US$15,000 a ton,in April or May,when the cocoa shortage will be highest,” noted one industry analyst. This potential price point represents a significant increase,potentially impacting the final cost of chocolate products for American consumers.
Impact on Global exports
The impact of these high prices is clearly visible in export figures. In 2023, cocoa and chocolate exports totaled $438 million. However, projections for 2024 indicate a substantial increase to $1.2 billion. One expert predicts that, “If prices remain the same or rise to or around $15,000, it could possibly reach nearly $2 billion in sales.” This surge in export value highlights the significant financial implications of the cocoa price spike.
The question remains: will prices continue to climb? According to one expert, “If the aforementioned problems continue in Africa, the rise would continue.” Another expert acknowledges the market’s close attention to African agricultural production, stating, “If there is a drop in production, the price will jump, it has been very volatile throughout the year.”
The Peruvian Viewpoint
Peru, while not a major cocoa producer on the scale of African nations, has also felt the effects of the price surge. A kilo of cocoa in the local market has reached nearly S/40 (approximately $11.13 USD), a significant increase from previous prices of S/8. “It is indeed a very high price,” commented the president of Appcacao. This price increase could stimulate increased domestic production in Peru in the coming years.
The current situation suggests that high cocoa prices are likely to persist for the medium term, potentially impacting the global chocolate market and consumer prices in the United States for the next two to three years.
Cocoa Prices Surge: What’s Driving the Chocolate Cost Increase?
Cocoa prices have reached record levels, sending ripples through the global chocolate market. Concerns are growing about the long-term impact of production shortfalls in West Africa and the potential for sustained price increases. World Today News Senior Editor, Maria Jones, sits down with cocoa industry expert Dr. Claudia Ramirez too shed light on this complex situation.
understanding the Price Spike
Maria Jones:
Dr. Ramirez, cocoa prices have been making headlines lately. Can you explain the factors behind this dramatic surge?
Dr. Claudia Ramirez: maria,it’s a perfect storm of issues. Primarily, we’re seeing significantly lower-than-expected production in Ivory Coast and Ghana, responsible for roughly 70% of global cocoa output.Droughts and crop disease have taken a severe toll on plantations.
Maria Jones:
Is this just a temporary setback, or are we looking at a longer-term trend?
dr.Claudia Ramirez: Unfortunately, projections suggest that these challenges will continue. The latest estimates show a potential production deficit of around 374,000 tons of cocoa in the coming year. This sustained shortfall will undoubtedly keep prices elevated.
Implications for Chocolate Lovers and Producers
Maria jones: What does this mean for consumers and chocolate manufacturers?
Dr. Claudia Ramirez: We’re likely to see increased prices for chocolate products, both domestically and internationally. Consumers may have to pay more for their favorite treats. Manufacturers face a difficult situation, with rising ingredient costs potentially squeezing their profit margins.
What Lies Ahead?
Maria Jones: Are there any glimmers of hope on the horizon? When can we expect cocoa prices to stabilize?
Dr. Claudia ramirez:
It’s difficult to say with certainty. These agricultural problems are complex and require time and effort to address. While some optimistic projections suggest a potential market stabilization within the next two to three years, it ultimately depends on the success of efforts to address the production challenges in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Maria jones:
Thank you, Dr. Ramirez, for providing such insightful analysis.
