Without coalition partners, Tusk has no majority
– It is always possible that both of our coalition partners will go under the ice. Especially since they are now teetering on the threshold. And what will we do then? – our interlocutors from the Platform wonder. – We do not have a single poll that would give us an independent majority. Nowhere, in any survey, does 40 percent appear. It would be like in 2007. We won, but we were 20 MPs short. We had to select PSL. What would have happened if they had not crossed the threshold? A repeat of 2015 – we hear in PO.
It is also possible that the Civic Coalition is strengthening its role as the largest party in the ruling coalition. What’s more, if Szymon Hołownia loses the elections once again, his Poland 2050 will start to turn sharply towards the Civic Coalition.
– I’ll bet you – the Third Way politician begins – that in November there will be changes in Poland 2050. Szymon will resign from the chairmanship of the party and cross out his name (the full name is Poland 2050 Szymon Hołownia – ed.) and if he gives up power, he won’t get it back after the presidential elections. And there are many people who will want to go to Tusk, but also many who are already negotiating with PSL.
There is also the issue of the rotation of the Sejm Speaker’s position. PSL suggested for several weeks that rotation was a bad idea and that the left should be deprived of the possibility of holding this position. But that was before the elections to the European Parliament and, above all, before the row over ideological issues. PSL suddenly felt very lonely in the four-party coalition, because even Poland 2050 voted for the decriminalization act. It dawned on the PSL quite abruptly that if there were any changes in the coalition, they did not necessarily have to mean getting rid of the left from the deck. It is true that in economic matters the party is closer to the liberals, but for now it was not economic matters that occupied the public’s attention.
— Please note that Tusk has already appeared at a press conference with Dziemianowicz-Bąk twice, announcing successive programs. First, “grandmother’s,” and now “widow’s pension” — emphasize the most scrupulous MPs, for whom such gestures indicate the real balance of power in the coalition.
PSL didn’t win anything
It is true that for now, PSL has no real political gain from the over half-year-long rule of the October 15 coalition. It even had to steal a bit of widow’s pension from the Left to have something to brag about.
In the Third Way, there is a real fear of the scenarios that the prime minister may play out, because no one really knows which game in Donald Tusk’s head now has the best chance of success.
– As for Donald, you have to admit that he is very conciliatory. There is no showing at all who has the bigger one here, and we know who does – laughs a high-ranking PO politician. – I understand that our coalition partners are afraid to even stand in Donald’s company – he says seriously – because there is always a risk that when you stand next to him, you disappear and this is probably the biggest problem for them, that of course we bear most of the costs of the coalition fights, but we also have the biggest benefits, because in the voters’ minds only Tusk is.
There is no plan for early elections
But this is not just a problem for coalition partners. This is also a very serious problem for the Civic Coalition. All our interlocutors tell us “we have no other prime minister”. And this is true. While a presidential candidate can be found in party resources, or even created, there is no other idea for the head of government. And there is certainly no idea of giving this place to smaller coalition partners.
— There is no plan for early elections at the moment, because it simply does not make sense at the moment. In order to hold early elections, we need someone responsible for this, it cannot be us — the Platform politician tells us.
— Shortening the term without a clear reason will not be well received by our voters. I understand the coalition partners’ concerns, but they should also start calculating instead of fighting — he adds.
It seems they have started, but for now it is a short-term calculation that is supposed to keep them above the electoral threshold and not let voters forget about them. The time for serious electoral strategies will come later.
— I think that for now, PSL only has such an idea to maintain media interest, because otherwise there would be no chance for anyone to notice them — says a person from the prime minister’s entourage, commenting on rumours about early elections.
And other PO politicians point out that in fact both extreme wings of the October 15 coalition — the left and the People’s Party — are trying to distinguish themselves from each other, not from the Civic Coalition. This is not a fight with the strongest in its own weight, just to preserve its own resources.
The Prime Minister’s aides say that “in none of the realistic scenarios are there early elections”. There is one scenario that most KO politicians reject for now. The presidential elections are won by a PiS politician and the situation does not change one iota. The coalition still does not have a partner in the Presidential Palace and cannot actually implement any serious changes. However, in this scenario, early elections could mean giving all power back to PiS, and that would be Donald Tusk’s biggest nightmare.
