Closing call: symbolic closing of an exceptionally negative investment year

Today’s trading day is actually a symbol for the whole year. The AEX closes down 1.7% and all stocks effectively end in the red. Fortunately, results are relatively limited. With a loss of 2.7%, NN Group is the biggest drop within the AEX.

Since there is not much to experience today in terms of news, I take this opportunity to look back on the stock year 2022. In short, it was a decidedly bad stock year. At RTLZ they had calculated on a box of cigars that it is even the worst year on the stock exchange since the end of the Second World War.

This is because both stock and bond prices have declined. We don’t see it every year. Bonds typically provide protection in your investment portfolio, as interest rates typically fall in a disappointing economic year.

This year everything was different. Due to high inflation, central banks have been forced to drastically raise interest rates. This had an effect on the capital market. While governments were still receiving money on their loans at the end of last year, the Dutch 10-year interest rate is currently just below 3%.

If we include high inflation, investors will have lost about 25% in real terms by 2022. A painful realisation.

In my opinion, 2022 was the worst investment year since WWII ??. Wake up at 12:00 @RTLZ pic.twitter.com/hser8VF7NN

— Jacob Shoemaker (@SchoenmakerJ) December 30, 2022

Almost all stock exchanges close 2022 in the red

If we take a look at the general equity indices, only the British (+0.9%) and the Portuguese (+3.0%) manage to keep their heads above water. In the FTS extension there are relatively many old economy stocks (eg oil and gas companies) and that will be fine this year.

From AEX extension with an 11.4% loss for the reinvestment index, it’s actually not doing too badly. Especially look at the Nasdaq100. A 34% loss is not tender.

AEX extension

Pension funds want theirs as soon as possible Shellshares (+37.1%). Let ex Koninklijke Olie is by far the best performing AEX fund. The reason is known. In any case, the defensive goals are doing a good job.

Tech stocks, on the other hand, you shouldn’t have. ASMI (-39.4%) Adyen (-44.3%) have plenty to choose from. Head to head Philips (-57.3%). The story of sleep apnea devices hangs like a millstone around the company’s neck. Furthermore, the economic data is also in a downward spiral.

AMX extension

December is one for it Fugro (+62.7%) to forget quickly. The soil researcher had to give up more than a quarter of its value last month. Despite this, Fugro became the best performing title in the Damrak this year.

The shareholders of Just eat takeout (-59.3%) only dreams. The market today looks more to cash flow than to growth and it is precisely the latter that the meal delivery service needs.

However, revenue growth has come under severe pressure this year as well. After corona we simply go out more and Just Eat Takeaway suffers. The acquisition of Grubhub – to put it mildly – is also not a success story. However, the long-term growth outlook remains favourable.

ASX extension

There is a small-cap stock emerging this year. Agriculture (+39.9%) hopes to receive the approval of the drug Leniolisib at the end of March. However, whether this will be successful is impossible to determine. If so, the biotech company will again be the top stock within the ASCX next year. Otherwise, the bottom ends at the bottom of the right row.

Finally, it remains for me to wish you a Happy New Year and, of course, a prosperous 2023. Let’s hope that then the gods of the stock market will be a little more favorable to us.

This week I have the honor of writing the preview. So I present ten brand new and bold predictions for the upcoming stock year.