After trading in the plus for a while, the gains ran out during the afternoon. The AEX (-0.1%) eventually closed fractionally later.
What is also striking is the rapidly rising dollar, or falling euro, it just depends on how you look at it. In addition, European market interest rates are declining by many basis points simultaneously and gas futures are rising considerably. It seems that the market fears a slowdown in growth in Europe.
Disappointing US macro data
In America it is not all roses and moonshine either. Some disappointing macro data came out today. At exactly four o’clock, the new consumer confidence index in the United States came out. The index fell from 98.4 in June to 95.7 in July, a lot worse than the 97.2 economists were counting on. The index has been falling for 3 months in a row now.
An even harder setback is the US home sales figure. The number of new single-family homes sold in June fell by 8.1% on a monthly basis to 590,000 units. This is well below the expected 660,000 new homes, which would have meant an increase.
Winstwaarschuwing Walmart
Not only the American macros were disappointing, the American supermarket chain Walmart also suffered a major setback yesterday, as the share price proves: -8.2%. This has everything to do with the announced profit warning. Walmart notes that high food and fuel prices are causing consumer reluctance, so it expects profits to be lower this year.
Unilever manages to implement price increases
“It doesn’t happen that often that Unilever (+3.9%) managed to positively surprise the market, but this was indeed the case this morning with the solid half-year figures”, analyst Martin Crum begins his Unilever analysis. The group sold 1.6% less in the past six months, but sharp price increases more than offset this. You can read all about it in the analysis below.
Consumers still accept Unilever price increases https://t.co/5VcENbeKzA #IEX
— IEX.nl (@IEXnl) July 26, 2022
Fugro comes with a nasty surprise
“fugro (-4%) surprised yesterday with brought forward half-year figures. They were initially only scheduled for Thursday. The reason for these figures is clear: the group has – finally – completed the long-awaited refinancing”, Martin Crum begins his analysis of Fugro.
“Per se That is good news, were it not for the fact that there is an annoying price tag for existing shareholders. Fugro will have to issue as part of the refinancing: up to 10% of new shares will be issued via a so-called accelerated bookbuilding method.” He calls the issue a nasty surprise and explains everything about it in his analysis below.
Emission Fugro is a nasty surprise https://t.co/8PXfjqq65o #IEX
— IEX.nl (@IEXnl) July 26, 2022
Annuities
The fees on ten-year government paper will decrease broadly. As mentioned, this probably has to do with the higher gas prices and the warning from the IMF. The Dutch interest rate plunges 11 basis points to 1.24%.
Broad market
- The AEX (-0.1%) is today slightly better than the French CAC 40 (-0.4%) and the German DAX (-1%).
- The CBOE VIX Index (Volatility) is up 4.7% to 24.5 points.
- Wall Street is in the red: S&P 500 (-0.8%), Dow 30 (-0.4%) and the Nasdaq (-1.4%).
- The euro fell 0.8% and traded 1.014 against the US dollar.
- Gold (-0.1%) is suffering from the strong dollar, although silver (+1.0%) remains very strong.
- Oil: WTI (-0.3%) and Brent (+0.5%) disagree.
- Bitcoin (-5.3%) is again anxiously approaching the $20,000 barrier.
The Damrak:
- Shell (+1.7%) is reaping the benefits of the increased gas price. The future for Dutch natural gas is already approaching the peak in March.
- It is remarkable that Philips (+4.6%) largely made up for yesterday’s loss. The half-year figures were really bad. Jefferies lowered his price target for the company from $26 to $22.
- The numbers of Randstad (-7.7%) were not bad at all, the broadcaster reported record turnover. The problem is in the outlook. In this article read more about it.
- Adyen (-5.6%) was on the rise, but today the share is falling sharply for no apparent reason.
- Just Eat Takeaway(-9.8%) hurts the eyes at all. Reuters has a story.
#JustEatTakeaway stands again -8.3% and only news today – my morning call readers already knew about it – is this #Reuters story. #Deliveroo -8,6%#HelloFresh -4,1%
#DeliverHero -0,2% #Uber -2,6%#AEX https://t.co/ZAqROgE3QU— Arend Jan Kamp (@ArendJanKamp) July 26, 2022
- ASML (-2.5%) is affected by a price target cut by ING. The major bank lowers its target price from €800 to €630.
- Ahold Delhaize (-1%) holds up remarkably well. We expected the stock to be hit harder by Walmart’s profit warning.
- Basic-Fit (-4.2%) is on Berenberg’s sales list as of today. The investment bank thinks the gym chain will suffer from
- Flow Traders (-4.6%) is at its lowest level since February 2020. This time, UBS is the culprit. The investment bank lowers the price target from €24 to €19.75.
- CM.com (-4.9%) does not seem to be able to rise. The bottom of June 14 is already in sight.
- Sligro (+3.7%) has got the hang of it, although we should not exaggerate the trading volume.
Advice
- ArcelorMittal: to €27 from €38 and buy – UBS
- ASML: to €630 from €800 and buy ING
- Basic-Fit: to selling love and to €33 from €43 – Berenberg
- Flow Traders: to $19.75 from $24 and sell – UBS
- Just Eat Takeaway: to €50 from €60 and buy – Deutsche Bank
- Philips: to €22 from €26 and keep – Jefferies
- Philips: to €16 from €17 and sell – UBS
- Randstad: to €53 from €60 and keep – Bank Degroof
- Randstad: to €62 from €71 and buy – KBC
Agenda Wednesday 27 July 2022
00:00 Core Laboratories – Q2 Figures
07:00 Airbus – Second quarter figures (Fra)
07:00 BASF – Second quarter figures (Ger)
07:00 Credit Suisse – Second quarter figures (Zwi)
07:00 Deutsche Bank – Q2 figures (Ger)
07:00 Telefonica Deutschland – Second quarter figures (Germany)
07:00 TotalEnergues – Second quarter figures (Fra)
07:00 UniCredit – Second quarter figures (Ita)
07:00 Vopak – Second quarter figures
07:30 KPN – Second quarter figures
08:00 Consumer Confidence – August (Ger)
10:00 Money supply – June (eur)
13:00 Boeing – Q2 figures (US)
13:00 Kraft Heinz – Q2 Figures (US)
13:00 Sherwin-Williams – US Q2 Figures
13:00 Mortgage Applications – Weekly (US)
14:30 Durable Goods Orders – June (US)
4:00 PM Upcoming Home Sales – Weekly (US)
16:30 Oil Stocks – Weekly (US)
18:00 AMG – Second quarter figures
18:00 Marel – Second quarter figures
18:00 UMG – Second quarter figures
20:00 Federal Reserve – Interest rate decision and disclosure (US)
22:00 Ford – US Q2 Figures
22:00 Meta Platforms – Q2 Figures (US)
22:00 Qualcomm – US Q2 Figures
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Coen Grutters is editor of IEX and Niels Koerts is an analyst at the IEX Investors’ Desk. The information in this column is not intended as professional investment advice or as a recommendation to make certain investments. click here for an overview of the investments of the IEX editors.
